Fantasy Football: Ideal Draft Formula

By Zac Morgan | astrosbias.com

     The key to a solid draft class lies within taking advantage of point differential. As a disclaimer, keep in mind the strategy I implemented this year was meant for a Yahoo, 10 team league with a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE FLEX, DEF, K lineup, with a snake format draft, but I believe the strategy is rather full-proof. The following is in my opinion the safest way to model your draft barring any particular position becomes depleted by overdrafting. My differentials' were calculated by echelons 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 by every position, and also by projected round for each position.

1. RB
2. WR
3. RB
4. RB
5. WR
6. QB
7. TE
8. DEF
9. WR
10. RB

RB:
Considering there is a steep drop-off and massive risk with running backs after the 4th depending on rankings and the way a draft is evolving, it's important to go RB heavy very early in the draft. The largest point differential lies between 1st and 2nd round runningbacks, with a drop-off of 73 points. That's also the largest drop-off in round 1, therefore don't miss out on the differential! If you have a flex in your league, I would highly reccomend that you make your 4th round selection a RB to fill that slot. Names like Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, and Darren Sproles should all be available at his point in the draft. Due to the volatility in a WR's workload, I believe it's much safer on a week to week basis to slot a RB into the flex. On average, the top 15 runningbacks are gone by the 3rd round. After the fourth the RB position is nearly depleted, where as QB and WR have a wealth of depth, so draft RB and do it early. Ideally, take a RB in rounds 1, 3, and 4.

WR:
The WR class this year is a rather deep one, flooded with WR2's who have massive potential. The largest drop-off among WR's comes between the 2nd and 3rd round with a differential of 36 points. On average he top 15 WR's are gone after the 4th, but there are really serviceable receivers with upside after that, such as Torrey Smith, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, and Jordy Nelson. An upper tier receiver has the potential to produce nearly as well as a late 1st round running back, so jump on that 36 point differential and snag a AJ Green, Dez Bryant, or Brandon Marshall in the second round. Although you'll see many receivers fly off the board while you go RB in the 3rd and 4th round, be patient because there will still be a 31 point differential to take advantage of by taking a receiver in the 5th. The 5th rounder should suffice as a solid WR2, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to take another receiver in the 7th. Guys like Steve Smith, T.Y. Hilton, and Miles Austin should be available there and would offer fantastic WR3 options with solid upside and a ceiling of a great WR2 ceiling.

QB:
The QB class this year is incredibly deep, so in order to take advantage of the point differential to capitalize on your projected point total, don't even think about a QB before the 5th unless a top 3 QB is for whatever reason still available. On average the top 10 QB's are available until the 7th round. Guys like RGIII and Tony Romo are available in the 6th and 7th usually, and both have upper echelon point potential, so be patient and wait for the QB market in the draft to develop. Now granted there is a 54 point differential between the QB's ranked 6-10 and 11-15, so don't reach  but try not to venture into that 11-15 territory. Take a QB in the 5th or 6th, depending on how the draft develops, and I believe you'll be very pleased with the finished product.

TE:
After the top 5, there is massive volatility and uncertainty here. If you can get a top 5 TE after or during the 6th, I recommend you do so considering there is a 32 point differential between TE's 1-5 and 6-10. However if the top 5 has already been taken by that point, nearly no one separates themselves from the pack. Guys who will be available in later rounds who interest me are Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Fred Davis, Jared Cook, Brandon Myers, and Zach Sudfeld. The ceiling on Sudfeld could be a nice payoff if the Pats continue to be among the league leaders in targeting TE's, and guys like Finley, Davis, and Gates may see a bounce back year and raise their stock. Also there's massive payoff and risk in taking Gronk there, but if he falls to the 6th take him or i'll have to fight you.

DEF:
There is a 33 point differential between defenses 1-5 and 6-10. I am a huge advocate of mixing and matching defenses based on opponents, but if an upper echelon D is available in the 8th, TAKE IT! There is no greater point differential available in the 8th that can impact your team like a top 5 defense can. As a disclaimer regarding the top 5 D's, I wouldn't recommend taking Denver considering concerns on Bailey's health, the loss of Dumerville, and the Von Miller suspension. If Houston(the greatest D ever assembled by the greatest defensive mind of all time, of course), Chicago, Seattle, Cincinnati, or San Francisco are available in the 8th, jump on it. If you choose to sit on a D longer, go with Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, or Tampa Bay (They have the NYJ week 1).

K:
Don't take a kicker until after at very earliest the 12th. Just don't do it. Don't be that guy. The largest differential among kickers is only 13 points, and much of a kickers production depends on how his offense develops throughout the year, and what defense he's facing that week. If Gostkowski, Walsh, or Bryant are available by the 12th and you're pretty content with your depth, i'll allow it. I personally didn't take a kicker until the 15th round, and I would recommend you do the same.

     In summary, it's a very simple strategy and not many employ it. Granted you still have to use your judgement, but it makes a draft much more stable and is an easy strategy to execute. I'll break down the differential below by the strategy given above. After the 8th round, stock your depth and try to swoop in and snag a sleeper or two. This strategy below with the addition of a common variety kicker will yield a projected 115 points per week based on standard yahoo scoring. Best of luck in your upcoming fantasy season!

Diferential:
1. RB-73 points
2. WR-36 points
3. RB-30.5
4. RB-54 points
5. WR-31 points
6. QB- 55.75 points
7. TE-33 points
8. DEF-32 points (between 9-10)
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