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Although he's posted a solid BB % of 12.5, the strikeouts are obviously a problem at an astronomical 37.2 %. I believe his struggles at home can be contributed to to simply his approach and a few telling numbers. Before going further in depth, here's a look at Carter's basic home and road splits...
The strikeouts and poor plate approaches that seem to add up at a substantial rate can become maddening to watch, but I believe their will be a pay-off, and it could be huge. Although a lot of Chris Carter's low BABIP of .224 at home can be contributed to poor plate approach and weak contact, I don't believe that low number to be sustainable. Considering he's had more at bats on the road than he has at home, it's fair to say that he's capable of making adjustments and hitting major league pitching very well, in spite of a high K rate. Naturally he needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but that isn't the main aspect that's preventing him from success at home. I believe the Crawford Boxes are the main hindrance to Chris Carter's success at home, and the numbers back it up. Carter's GB/FB rate nearly doubles when he hits within his not so friendly confines. On the road Chris owns a GB/FB rate of .43, where as at home that rate jumps aggressively to .83. Carter boasts a GB% on the road of 22.6%, and a rate of 37.4% at home. It's pretty clear he's putting the ball on the ground quite a bit more at home, and from spray charts and heat maps, the vast majority of those groundballs are being pulled to the left side of the infield. This is a tell tale sign of a right handed hitter pulling off on the outer half pitch, and rolling over on the baseball. If you've watched your fair share of Carter at bats this year you've likely seen him roll over often, and do so at a much higher rate at home. That enticing 315 foot porch has no doubt affected Carter's overall performance, line drive rate, and solid contact rate, as he attempts to get out in front of the baseball and as most do ends up rolling it over harmlessly to the shortstop. Because of his tendency to pull off the baseball, CC has become vulnerable to the breaking ball on the outer half, and many a pitcher have exploited that flaw this year. Of the pitches Carter has seen this year, 23% of them have been sliders. That rate is well above the major league average. Without the Crawford Boxes in the back of his mind on the road, Carter has adjusted and been able to take those pitches, and has also swung through the ball more often, going with the placement of the pitch rather than pulling off of it and trying to yank it to the left side of the field. It's clear that he can be an upper tier offensive weapon, and he can do so in spite of the strikeouts. Carter has posted a ISO of .294 on the road, and a wRC+ of 152. On the road, Chris Carter is among the elite in the game.
Split
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
TB
|
BAbip
|
sOPS+
|
Home
|
61
|
199
|
20
|
31
|
5
|
9
|
21
|
30
|
94
|
.156
|
.274
|
.327
|
.600
|
65
|
.224
|
66
|
Away
|
62
|
218
|
35
|
59
|
13
|
17
|
49
|
30
|
87
|
.271
|
.359
|
.564
|
.923
|
123
|
.362
|
159
|
The strikeouts and poor plate approaches that seem to add up at a substantial rate can become maddening to watch, but I believe their will be a pay-off, and it could be huge. Although a lot of Chris Carter's low BABIP of .224 at home can be contributed to poor plate approach and weak contact, I don't believe that low number to be sustainable. Considering he's had more at bats on the road than he has at home, it's fair to say that he's capable of making adjustments and hitting major league pitching very well, in spite of a high K rate. Naturally he needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but that isn't the main aspect that's preventing him from success at home. I believe the Crawford Boxes are the main hindrance to Chris Carter's success at home, and the numbers back it up. Carter's GB/FB rate nearly doubles when he hits within his not so friendly confines. On the road Chris owns a GB/FB rate of .43, where as at home that rate jumps aggressively to .83. Carter boasts a GB% on the road of 22.6%, and a rate of 37.4% at home. It's pretty clear he's putting the ball on the ground quite a bit more at home, and from spray charts and heat maps, the vast majority of those groundballs are being pulled to the left side of the infield. This is a tell tale sign of a right handed hitter pulling off on the outer half pitch, and rolling over on the baseball. If you've watched your fair share of Carter at bats this year you've likely seen him roll over often, and do so at a much higher rate at home. That enticing 315 foot porch has no doubt affected Carter's overall performance, line drive rate, and solid contact rate, as he attempts to get out in front of the baseball and as most do ends up rolling it over harmlessly to the shortstop. Because of his tendency to pull off the baseball, CC has become vulnerable to the breaking ball on the outer half, and many a pitcher have exploited that flaw this year. Of the pitches Carter has seen this year, 23% of them have been sliders. That rate is well above the major league average. Without the Crawford Boxes in the back of his mind on the road, Carter has adjusted and been able to take those pitches, and has also swung through the ball more often, going with the placement of the pitch rather than pulling off of it and trying to yank it to the left side of the field. It's clear that he can be an upper tier offensive weapon, and he can do so in spite of the strikeouts. Carter has posted a ISO of .294 on the road, and a wRC+ of 152. On the road, Chris Carter is among the elite in the game.
I believe there are many positives to take from Carters campaign. Although it is a bit concerning that he hasn't quite adjusted and refined his approach at home, those gaudy road numbers showcase just what he can be. The key to success lies within Carter's own head. If he can simply ignore the Crawford Boxes and transfer his approach from the road over to home, the numbers show he will be an elite power hitter. Chris Carter isn't far from these adjustments either, and as soon as he adjusts to pitches on the outer half, pitchers will be forced to respect CC more so and give him better pitches to send into another solar system. Below are a few charts via mlbfarm.com to show just how bad he is pulling off the baseball, and also a video displaying that sexy power he owns. Don't give up on Chris Carter, we could have something very special.
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