Posts
Follow us on Twitter @houstonbias & @astrosbias
Jeff Luhnow is a baseball God, and here's why. Unlike last year, Jeff Luhnow leveraged all transactions close to the deadline, moving Bud only hours before the trade deadline passed. While acquiring depth and quantity was last years game-plan, this deadline's focus was solely on receiving quality in return, sniping pieces he's had his eyes on for years in some cases. Luhnow continues to stay the course and push the right buttons in reference to building and sustaining long term success by acquiring LJ Hoes, Josh Hader, Kyle Smith, Danry Vasquez, and, arguably the most important piece in all of these trades, the 33rd overall pick in next years rule 4 draft.
The impact of this deadline could quite possibly make a strong impression on contending teams very realistically within the next couple of years. Hader, Smith, and Vasquez are a couple of years away at 19, 20, and 19 years old respectively, and they will most likely bolster the current talent laden Quad Cities, Lancaster, and the younger Corpus Christi guys as they make their way to the show. However, LJ Hoes will be given a chance to contribute immediately and solidify his place on contending clubs of the future. These deals push the system to the point of saturation, blended well with high upside and mature major league ready talent alike. The fact that all of the guys required are worthy of top 5-10 consideration in nearly every system, and can't crack any spot higher than 13 speaks volumes. Max Stassi can't even squeak his way into Mayo's top 20...chew on that for a moment. If you're elated at the talent on the farm at the moment, just wait for the aftermath of next years draft with three picks within the top 40, and most likely a number overall selection to come yet again in what is considered to be a much deeper draft class. Don't sleep on that 33rd pick either. If the Astros have the same intent with that selection that they did in 2012, look for a top 10 organizational talent to be infused into the system.
(Pictured above, Jeff Luhnow elates in his sheer genius and pillaging of his respective GM's)
In all reality here the Astros gave up a solid middle of the rotation arm in Bud Norris, an often injured 29 year old OF whom hasn't seen more than 500 at bats in any professional season, and a low risk free agent acquisition reliever, on the wrong side of 30...Cash for Clunkers. Not to demean these guys in any way, but long-term, these were the right moves, at the right time, and we received more value than anyone could have hoped. The point being that neither Maxwell or Veras figured into future plans, as they shouldn't have, therefore their value in relation to the Astros was far less than that of the pieces received. The Astros received in return number 4,5,7,11 prospects from three respected teams, as well as a competitive balance pick at #33 overall for only one piece that figured into future plans. Jeff Luhnow is a freaking wizard, in Luhnow We Trust!
Hold on there! Luhnow has shown some promise in drafting players,(that is how he made his name in the Cardinal organization) but the Astros are still trotting out AAA players and charging MLB prices. The strategy he has employed is rid the team of all major league talent (Chris Johnson,Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris), save salary costs and get back average or better talent from some other team's AAA team. (Loehs, Grossman, Krause) Finally after the MLB team does poorly, he gets to draft really high and everyone thinks he is a genius.
ReplyDeleteIn this last trade of Norris, the baseball analysts stated the Orioles did not give up much to get Norris. Maybe that supplemental draft will pan out.
His trade of Melancon for Jed Lowrie was good, but then he trades Lowrie to the A's for an AAA starting pitcher (Peacock), Kris Karter who strikes out at least once every three times he comes to bat, and a catcher that may make it to the bigs one day (Stassi). Guess who is near the top in batting average; none other than Chris Johnson and guess who the Pirate closer is this year. If Luhnow was forced to jettison Chris Johnson due to financial concerns is one thing, but if he misjudged his talent, that is another.
Ed Wade was criticized heavily when he was here, but he is responsible for Cosart, Springer, Singleton, and Villar being here. Ed Wade did at least get some talent when he traded away Hunter Pence.
In time I may trust in Luhnow, but I am so tired of seeing the Astros blow leads in the late innings, not be able to drive in runs with guys on third base with no or one out, and striking out so much.
My respect for Daryl Morey has increased as the Rockets have never employed the strategy of gutting the team and waiting for the draft picks to come and improve the team and making the fans pay to see sub par professional basketball like Luhnow/Crain are doing with Astro fans.
I hope Correa, Deshields, Appel, and McCullers all become all-stars so I can say Luhnow is a wizard. But for now, all they have is potential and all I can say is that I might trust in Luhnow after he produces talent on the MLB level. I am waiting!
And in reference to giving him his due if these prospects pan out, I would say that's an unfair stance because of the degree of volatility that comes with prospects. Luhnow's job was to acquire a wealth of depth and talent, and he has done just that. Luhnow has done his part, whether or not the players pan out is out of his control. also, most pundits aren't giving nearly enough credit to the draft pick in the Norris trade, that will most likely become the centerpiece of the deal if they choose to go overslot on upper tier talent that falls, ie Lance McCullers. I understand your frustrations though, just give the man time!
DeleteZachary,
DeleteNice response. It is good to hear from people that are passionate about their team when times are hard. I hope you are right about Jeff Luhnow and his plan. Are you and Lee Morgan related? (See response below)
As do I! I definitely look forward to brighter days ahead. Haha yeah we're brothers actually.
DeleteThe currently poor state of the big league roster isn't debatable, but that's not the issue. Luhnow hasn't ridded the roster of all big league talent, he has employed masterful trades, getting rid of players who didn't figure into the long-term picture of this team for players who did. We're building a dynasty in Houston, not an overnight sensation.
ReplyDeleteBaseball analysts have NEVER had anything good to say about the Astros, so I don't know why we would expect them to now. We got the O’s #5 & #7 prospects for Bud...a serviceable big league hurler. BUT, that would be like the Astros giving up McCullers and Cosart for a middle of the rotation, 4+ERA starting pitcher...AND we get the 33rd overall pick next year, who will instantly slide into the Astros top 30-prospect list as soon as he signs. If the mainstream baseball analysts don't call that a monster deal, they're only showing their anti-Houston bias.
Now the Lowrie trade. Chris Carter strikes out alot, fair. He is also, however, second on the team in OPS and a much better option at 1B than Brett Walrus, with a positive offensive WAR. That being said, Carter wasn't the golden goose of the trade. You mentioned that Stassi may make it to the bigs one day...the same guy who is widely regarded as the best defensive catcher in our system, a pull hitter who will live in the Biggio Boxes, is hitting at a .283 clip, with an OPS of .910, 15HR, 49RBIs in 226ABs in the proving grounds of AA. On any other team, he would be lauded on sports center every night as the next Johnny Bench, and he can't even crack Mayo's top 20. That shows our incredible depth.
The CJ trade was the right trade at the right time. Again, he didn't figure into our long term plans. He was a light-hitting, terrible defensive 3B. Do I hope he has an amazing career, of course. He's a great guy. But he's not the Astros 3B for the 2016 World Series team. Why build around him? Melancon became the Pirates closer by default when Grilli got injured. Another great guy, quality 7-8th inning guy, but not worth hanging onto. There are plenty of MLB serviceable relievers we can sign when we're ready.
Who criticized Ed Wade? The Houston-media was, and still is in love with Wade. He made some great moves. And of course he "got some talent" for trading away Pence, one of the best young sluggers in the game at the time. Compare that to Luhnow's recent trades of marginal-to-good players who we didn't absolutely need at all, and the haul he was able to pull...and you have to at least give the two GMs a wash in the trade argument.
Again, we're all tired of the pen blowing leads, and not driving in runners, but we can't be so short-sighted. We could have spent $40mil this off-season and signed 4 or 5 30-something, overpaid journeymen...or we can continue to build through trades and the draft, not be financially burdened, and have the flexibility to build around a few free agents when our boys make it to the bigs. It doesn't make sense to put a patchwork team together, for the sake of faking our way through the season. The Astros are the most honest team in baseball right now, and the mainstream sports media can't handle it.
If you want to be mad at anyone for gutting the team, get mad at Drayton. Baseball isn't like basketball. It takes years to develop talent. Crane and Luhnow are doing what it takes to fix the problem created in 2006 - 2009. Is it painful? Yes. Will it be worth it when we're having a dynastic run over a decade or more? Absolutely.
Luhnow has already proven himself at the big league level. Look at the Cardinals system, one of the best in baseball...which we have now eclipsed. There is no reason to look on Luhnow with such a skeptical eye. He's a proven scout, scouting director, and now, GM. There's no reason to believe he hasn't built the 2016 world series team already. Just ask Morgan Ensberg, they're all at Quad Cities, Lancaster, and Corpus. In Luhnow we still trust.
Lee, you are a passionate Astro fan, but it will take time to see if all these "masterful trades" work out like you think they will. I hope they do. You seem to be well connected to the Astros. You mentioned the 2016 world series team in your response. I would love to hear your opinion by position of that team. I am interested in who you think will be playing the corners. I am not a big fan of Carter, you don't like Wallace, and Singleton is not tearing it up in AAA. Who is the future first baseman? Dominguez shows flashes with his bat, but strikes out too much. He is fine defensively. Another year may be all he needs. Are there any other power hitter 3B's in the Astro system?
ReplyDeleteThe Astros have several strong candidates for starting pitchers in the upcoming years including certain players currently on the roster. They need to find some relief pitching.
Who besides Springer comprises your outfield in your 2016 team?
We may not agree on everything, but it always good to talk baseball. Thanks for your response.
I will have to keep up with this website now,
I completely agree that it'll take time, but I don't think it'll take as much time as the Baseball writers establishment thinks it will. We're being billed as perennial bottom-dwellers, but I believe we're 2 years away from playing .500+ baseball, and 3 years from legitimate contention. The 2016 world series comment might be overly optimistic, but I don't think by too much. We are legitimately stacked at AA and below, by anyone's analysis who isn't just anti-Astros.
DeleteI'm not saying I don't like Walrus, I love the guy. I just don't love him playing baseball with a glove on his hand. Let him DH until we have a better option. If he can put it together at the big league level like he has in OKC, he'll be a valuable addition to our lineup for years.
Carter strikes out alot, I understand, but he's got plus power. If he can reduce his strikeouts, he's a serviceable big league pitcher. If he can't, Singleton is on the way.
About Singleton, he has a proven track-record of raking in the minors. He hasn't performed that well in OKC, but the guy's only had 155 at bats, he's 21, and apparently loves doing drugs :). Let's let him make adjustments and win a spot out of spring training in 2014.
2016 team, as requested:
C: Castro/Stassi/Cokonos
1B: Singleton
2B: Altuve
SS: Villar/Correa
3B: Dominguez/Ruiz/Correa/Meyer
LF: DeShields/Tucker/Hoes/Grossman
CF: Springer
RF: Santana/Hoes/Grossman
DH: E.Castro/J.Castro/Tucker/Walrus/Heineman/Cokonos
SP: Appel/Cosart/Folty/McCullers/Wojo/Smith
RP: Hader/Nitro/Velasques/Smith/Ballew
The point being...we're stacked at almost every possible position, and it's hard to say who will separate themselves, which is an amazing problem to have. Championship teams don't have all-stars at every position, either.
We appreciate the comments, keep em coming and keep coming back to HoustonBias!