Fantasy Football Week 6: Start or Sit

By Zachary Morgan | HoustonBias.com

Follow us on twitter at @HoustonBias 

     I'll preface this article by saying that I tried to include fringe guys in the list, guys that you're maybe a tad on the fence about. If you have a top 10 guy in any position, barring the worst matchup ever, he's starting. 

   
QB:
Start:

Cam Newton | CAR @ MIN
The match-up is sexy. Minnesota has allowed no fewer than 292 passing yards thus far this year and they're averaging over two touchdowns allowed per thus far. The Vikes have also been vulnerable to the deep ball, and Mike Shula hasn't been shy tossing it deep this year with touchdowns of over 40 yards twice already in the 2013 campaign. He's somewhat mobile too some might say, and a 40-50 yard chunk on the ground doesn't hurt. Cam is coming off a poor performance, and will look to have a day against the poor Minnesota secondary.

Tony Romo | WAS @ DAL
Tony Romo won't flounder after his nearly record breaking day against the Denver Broncos in week 5. The Washington defense is very suspect, and this may become a high scoring affair considering how the Dallas secondary has been assaulted as of late. RG3 did proclaim he felt fantastic coming off his bye, and he just may return to form, forcing Romo and Co. to go airborne heavy yet again. The emergence of a serviceable slot/out guy in Terrence Williams opens spots for Witten and Dez. Washington has given up the 5th most fantasy points to QBs in relation to Yahoo fantasy scoring. At this point are you benching Romo regardless? Pair his performance with his matchup and this is a no brainer.

RGIII | WAS @ DAL
Coming off a bye, look for RGIII to torch this rough Dallas secondary. Refer back to the Romo bit, this will likely become a high scoring affair. It's up in the air whether or not he actively reincorporates his legs back into the gameplan this week, but regardless expect big things from him tossing the football. I can see major junk time here if the Redskins falter their first several drives as well. Even with a bit of rust and little to no run game, RGIII has been a very viable starting option thus far even though his numbers have come in some junk time. Slot RGIII into the starting slot and feel good about it.

Andrew Luck | IND @ SD
Granted the Colts have gone run heavy thus far, but look for the roles to reverse in this contest. The Chargers rank top 5 in run defense, but bottom 5 in pass defense. Luck may only attempt 30 passes, but he will be efficient with the throws allotted. If the Colts lets Heyward-Bey and Hilton stretch the field as they did last week, the Chargers may become vulnerable to large chunks in dump-offs, or even lanes for Andrew Luck to run. Look for Andrew Luck to justify a starting job this week with a cake match-up.

Sit:


Russell Wilson | TEN  @ SEA
I'm not completely anti-Wilson this week, but if you have another option with a friendlier matchup, go for it. I think he's a top 15 play, but the Tennessee defense has been no joke thus far, and they've been stingy regarding fantasy points surrendered to QB's. Wilson isn't a must start anyways unless you're in a deep formatted league. I don't look for this one to be a shootout with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm for the Titans, and could see Marshawn Lynch getting 25-30 touches. Naturally Wilson's at home and the 12th man advantage in Seattle is ridiculous, but if you can bench him this week, feel confident in doing so.

Carson Palmer | ARI @ SF
Don't do it. I feel for you if you're starting Palmer anyways unless you are in a very deep two quarterback league. The matchup is scary, the 49'ers have returned to form, and playing in their own confines doesn't help the Cardinals cause. Palmer has struggled to settle into the Arizona offense, and hasn't taken advantage of the weapons he has in Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald, with a 67 passer rating and a 5/9, TD/INT ratio. The absence of a productive ground game does not help his value, and the matchup is a no brainer. Do not start Carson Palmer.


RB:
Start:

Reggie Bush | DET@CLE
This Sunday Reggie Bush will go up against a formidable front seven, but one that has surrendered the 10th most fantasy points to RB's this season according to Yahoo Fantasy Football. If Calvin plays at all, it will likely be in a limited role, and Reggie may be featured as the focal point of the offense yet again. The Browns may take advantage of this the same manner in which the Packers did by stuffing the box, but Bush will get his touches and all he needs is volume which he will assuredly get. I look for Reggie to be featured in Calvin's absence even more so in the passing game, and I wouldn't be surprised if he saw six or seven targets. At this point you shouldn't be benching Reggie regardless, but he should have a good one on Sunday.

Fred Jackson | CIN @ BUF
This tandem in Buffalo just may be the death of me. Cincy has been pretty stingy this year defensively, giving up the 9th fewest fantasy points to RB's according to Yahoo scoring. However, with rookie practice squad QB Thad Lewis at the helm for the Bills, it's gonna be all kinds of check down city and Jackson has been targeted heavier in the pass game thus far this year. Even without a full work load, Fred Jackson has been a top 10 fantasy option thus far this year, and he should be started until he proves otherwise. CJ Spiller still has lingering effects from his ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for the game Sunday. Expect Fred to get a similar workload as last week on the ground, and a few more targets in the air. Not to mention Jackson has served as the Bills clear favorite in the redzone thus far, and I don't see that changing moving forward given he stays healthy. As a Spiller owner it kills me to say this, but if you have both, you should be sitting CJ and slotting Fred Jackson in his place come Sunday morning.

Knowshon Moreno | DEN @ JAX
The clear cut questioning here as to whether or not he should be in your lineups this week comes down to how early he is pulled after the Broncos mount a substantial lead. There isn't anything to go by from the Broncos staff as far as when the first team will be pulled in the likely case that the Broncos are several, several scores ahead Sunday. I think the matchup is one that's too good to pass up regardless. I also believe that most people are putting to much stock into the fact that several players will be pulled early. I think regardless of the score, Moreno will likely see 15 touches, and against an abysmal Jacksonville defense each of those carries should bring some fruition. Moreno is tied for 2nd in the NFL in rushing touchdowns and is the clear favorite in the redzone as well as throughout the game at this point. Ronnie Hillman as well as Montee Ball will see garbage time, but I doubt they see enough to really eat into Knowshon's workload to a large extent. The Broncos will be in the redzone early and often, I like Knowshon's chances to punch one in. Start, start, start.

Darren Sproles | NO @ NE
Pierre Thomas will not repeat, and with Ingram again Questionable, I like Darren Sproles. The Pats have been somewhat vulnerable to RB's in the passing game, and I look for the Saints to unleash Sproles after a quiet afternoon against the Bears last week. Sproles is a frustrating commodity as he can be volatile, but in an awful year for running backs he's a pretty attractive option. In what may turn out to be a high scoring affair between two elite QB's, I think Sproles will see his share of targets. Unless you have better options on hand, Darren Sproles is starting for you in RB2/Flex range.


Sit:

Chris Johnson | TEN @ SEA
Sit, sit, sit, and sit. There is a very remote chance that the Titans stroll into Seattle against that front 7, in front of those fans, and run all over them. Now granted CJ has that ability to burst and turn one run into a productive fantasy day, but there's a very good chance he's bottled up come week 6 against an elite NFL defense in front of a crowd of rabid Seahawks fans. Don't do it. Flex a WR3 option over CJ this week, the matchup simply does not bode well.

Ryan Matthews | IND @ SD
Don't do this to yourself. Danny Woodhead is beginning to monopolize carries, and Indy boasts a top 5 run defense. Ryan Matthews has seen his fair share of carries and has simply not produced. He won't start doing so against a tough Colts run D. If you're a Ryan Matthews owner, get your hands on Danny Woodhead and be done with Matthews. Sit him and feel very confident in doing so.

C.J. Spiller | CIN @ BUF
CJ Spiller is the girl who snubbed my school dance invite in front of all my friends in middle school. I talked CJ up, and with all the faith in the world spent my 6th overall pick on him, and he's embarrassed me in front of my incredibly insensitive buddies. Me an CJ have had our rough patches and I look for this week to be no different. Spiller is coming into the contest listed as questionable, still dealing with ankle troubles from two weeks ago. Granted C.J. did post 66 yards and a touch last week, but 99 % of that production came from a 54 yard run to the house. Take that run from his statline and you're left with an abysmal 7 carries for 12 yards. Now this can be the nature of C.J., and by benching him you're running the risk of missing out on that one burst, but Jackson is such a safer play here with every bit of the upside if not more. With rookie Thad Lewis at the helm, the Bills will likely check down more than often, and FJax is leading Spiller in targets 23-11 thus far this year. If you can manage, it wouldn't be a bad idea to slot C.J. into a bench spot this week.

WR:
Start:

Reggie Wayne | IND @ SD
San Diego is boasting the 4th most points given up to WR's according to Yahoo scoring formats. T.Y. Hilton may play a larger role in the offense as he did last week, but his involvement has been very volatile thus far this season. Wayne is still clearly Luck's favorite option averaging eight targets a week. San Diego owns a top 5 run D, so the Colts may gameplan or be forced to go airborne in the redzone and in goal line situations. The matchup is there, and I look for Indy's run first minded offense to frequent the air more so this week. Feel very confident with Wayne occupying a WR2 or flex slot.

Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon | DEN @ JAX
Junk time 101. The Jacksonville duo is a very solid pair, and they've shown time and time again that the Jaguar's woes do nothing negative to their fantasy value, especially with Chad Henne behind center. With about a 28 point spread on this one, both receivers will see junk time like no other this season, and the Denver secondary hasn't been anything to hang your hat on, giving up the 3rd most points to WR's. Shorts is averaging 12 targets a game and Blackmon saw 9 in his very first game. Denver has allowed seven scores and four different 100 yard games. Start them both without any question.

Pierre Garcon | WAS @ DAL
This one will likely end up a shoutout with two inept defenses going at it. Both offenses can sling it, and RGIII has spoken highly of how he feels coming off his bye week. Garcon is RGIII's favorite target with an average of 11 targets per. Garcon, usually a deep threat, has yet to bust anything substantial as the Redskins have featured him in more of a prominent WR1 role, and I think it's only a matter of time before he takes a long one to the house. The targets will be there, and Washington may be throwing from behind often. Look for a big day from Pierre as the Dallas secondary has allowed at least 10 fantasy points to every prominent WR they've seen thus far.


Sit:

Anquan Boldin | ARI @ SF
Although Boldin has been the featured WR in this offense thus far, Vernon Davis will likely be returning to playing without hindrance this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the 10 fewest points to wide receivers. This offense has been incredibly sporadic, and Boldin has averaged only six targets since week 2. Kaep has averaged only 140 yards passing since week 2. The 49'ers have gone back to their roots as a run first squad, and I look for no difference come this matchup.

Nate Washington | TEN @ SEA
See Johnson, Chris above. The matchup is far from appealing, and Washington will likely see some time against possibly the leagues best cover corner in Richard Sherman. Although Washington is averaging nearly 8 targets a week, the Seahawks stout D has really only surrendered solid performances to Cecil Shorts, Andre Johnson, and T.Y. Hilton. Cecil garnered his value in garbage time, and Hilton was not properly planned for. Andre was the only receiver to straight up beat them, but Andre is a full grown man damnit. Nate Washington is no Andre Johnson, and I don't look for the Titans to present Washington with any junk time opportunity as they have a pretty sound squad there. If you can sit Washington, I would recommend it.

Marques Colston | NO @ NE
Two Words,  Aqib Talib. Colston has averaged 6 targets this year as opposed to an average of 8 last year, and the matchup is not encouraging although it may end up a high scoring affair. I don't put a whole lot of stock into how Colston has under performed this year thus far, in fact I would buy low as he is historically a slow starter, but Talib is as tough as they come. The big physical corner will make like rough on the New Orleans wide-out. If you have the luxury of a deep squad or great matchups this week elsewhere, it may not be a bad idea to give Colston the week off.


TE:
Start:

Garrett Graham | STL @ HOU
With Graham the featured tight end in an offense that targets them heavily, this is a no brainer. With Schaub looking to get back on track don't be surprised to see him looking for his security blanket even more so. Owen Daniels averaged over 8 targets a week in the role that Garrett Graham will be taking over. The matchup is phenomenal against a struggling run defense at home.I look for our Texans to get back on track and make a statement in doing so. Graham will see upwards of 8-10 targets, and a couple of those just may be in the redzone. Start him and Go Texans!

Greg Olsen | CAR @ MIN
Minnesota has given up the third most points in the league to TE's according to Yahoo scoring formats. Cam is coming off a rough week, turning the ball over three times, and will look to bounce back against the Minnesota defense. Olsen averages 8 targets a week, second to only Steve Smith with 9 a week. Olsen is on pace for his highest career catch total as Cam is actively looking for him more so, and he's also on pace to double his red zone targets from the previous year. He's a top 10 TE, and you shouldn't bench him regardless of matchup. 

Brent Celek | PHI @ TB
TE's have feasted on the Eagles linebacking corps and secondary thus far this year as the Philly D has surrendered the 5th most points to TE's thus far in the 2013 campaign. Although Celek is only averaging near 4 targets on average, he should be more active in an offense manned by Nick Foles with Vick on the sidelines this week. The matchup is there, and there isn't a saturation of solid TE's this year, so go for it slot Celek in the starting lineup with optimism. 


Sit:

Jared Cook | STL @ HOU
If you have another option available, seize the opportunity. The wondrous Houston D has surrendered the fewest passing yards per game, and the volatility of production is maddening with Cook. Cook has averaged 6 targets a game over his last four contests but he is utilizing only half of those targets. Jared has caught for no more than 45 yards with no trips to the endzone since his massive week 1 performance. Look elsewhere for a starting TE this week.

Jeff Cumberland | PIT @ NYJ
The Jets tight end Jeff Cumberland is one to avoid this week as the Steelers D has been very tough against opposing TE's allowing the 3rd fewest points to the position. Although Cumberland has benefited from two touchdown receptions the last two weeks, he hasn't been targeted much over the last three weeks with an average below 3. The Jets offense as well can be suspect, and the matchup is much more conducive to the run, so if you're starting a Jet, you're starting Bilal Powell. Don't chase two touchdowns in two consecutive weeks, because he's likely to miss the endzone this week.

Fantasy Football: Ideal Draft Formula

By Zac Morgan | astrosbias.com

     The key to a solid draft class lies within taking advantage of point differential. As a disclaimer, keep in mind the strategy I implemented this year was meant for a Yahoo, 10 team league with a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE FLEX, DEF, K lineup, with a snake format draft, but I believe the strategy is rather full-proof. The following is in my opinion the safest way to model your draft barring any particular position becomes depleted by overdrafting. My differentials' were calculated by echelons 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 by every position, and also by projected round for each position.

1. RB
2. WR
3. RB
4. RB
5. WR
6. QB
7. TE
8. DEF
9. WR
10. RB

RB:
Considering there is a steep drop-off and massive risk with running backs after the 4th depending on rankings and the way a draft is evolving, it's important to go RB heavy very early in the draft. The largest point differential lies between 1st and 2nd round runningbacks, with a drop-off of 73 points. That's also the largest drop-off in round 1, therefore don't miss out on the differential! If you have a flex in your league, I would highly reccomend that you make your 4th round selection a RB to fill that slot. Names like Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, and Darren Sproles should all be available at his point in the draft. Due to the volatility in a WR's workload, I believe it's much safer on a week to week basis to slot a RB into the flex. On average, the top 15 runningbacks are gone by the 3rd round. After the fourth the RB position is nearly depleted, where as QB and WR have a wealth of depth, so draft RB and do it early. Ideally, take a RB in rounds 1, 3, and 4.

WR:
The WR class this year is a rather deep one, flooded with WR2's who have massive potential. The largest drop-off among WR's comes between the 2nd and 3rd round with a differential of 36 points. On average he top 15 WR's are gone after the 4th, but there are really serviceable receivers with upside after that, such as Torrey Smith, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, and Jordy Nelson. An upper tier receiver has the potential to produce nearly as well as a late 1st round running back, so jump on that 36 point differential and snag a AJ Green, Dez Bryant, or Brandon Marshall in the second round. Although you'll see many receivers fly off the board while you go RB in the 3rd and 4th round, be patient because there will still be a 31 point differential to take advantage of by taking a receiver in the 5th. The 5th rounder should suffice as a solid WR2, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to take another receiver in the 7th. Guys like Steve Smith, T.Y. Hilton, and Miles Austin should be available there and would offer fantastic WR3 options with solid upside and a ceiling of a great WR2 ceiling.

QB:
The QB class this year is incredibly deep, so in order to take advantage of the point differential to capitalize on your projected point total, don't even think about a QB before the 5th unless a top 3 QB is for whatever reason still available. On average the top 10 QB's are available until the 7th round. Guys like RGIII and Tony Romo are available in the 6th and 7th usually, and both have upper echelon point potential, so be patient and wait for the QB market in the draft to develop. Now granted there is a 54 point differential between the QB's ranked 6-10 and 11-15, so don't reach  but try not to venture into that 11-15 territory. Take a QB in the 5th or 6th, depending on how the draft develops, and I believe you'll be very pleased with the finished product.

TE:
After the top 5, there is massive volatility and uncertainty here. If you can get a top 5 TE after or during the 6th, I recommend you do so considering there is a 32 point differential between TE's 1-5 and 6-10. However if the top 5 has already been taken by that point, nearly no one separates themselves from the pack. Guys who will be available in later rounds who interest me are Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Fred Davis, Jared Cook, Brandon Myers, and Zach Sudfeld. The ceiling on Sudfeld could be a nice payoff if the Pats continue to be among the league leaders in targeting TE's, and guys like Finley, Davis, and Gates may see a bounce back year and raise their stock. Also there's massive payoff and risk in taking Gronk there, but if he falls to the 6th take him or i'll have to fight you.

DEF:
There is a 33 point differential between defenses 1-5 and 6-10. I am a huge advocate of mixing and matching defenses based on opponents, but if an upper echelon D is available in the 8th, TAKE IT! There is no greater point differential available in the 8th that can impact your team like a top 5 defense can. As a disclaimer regarding the top 5 D's, I wouldn't recommend taking Denver considering concerns on Bailey's health, the loss of Dumerville, and the Von Miller suspension. If Houston(the greatest D ever assembled by the greatest defensive mind of all time, of course), Chicago, Seattle, Cincinnati, or San Francisco are available in the 8th, jump on it. If you choose to sit on a D longer, go with Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, or Tampa Bay (They have the NYJ week 1).

K:
Don't take a kicker until after at very earliest the 12th. Just don't do it. Don't be that guy. The largest differential among kickers is only 13 points, and much of a kickers production depends on how his offense develops throughout the year, and what defense he's facing that week. If Gostkowski, Walsh, or Bryant are available by the 12th and you're pretty content with your depth, i'll allow it. I personally didn't take a kicker until the 15th round, and I would recommend you do the same.

     In summary, it's a very simple strategy and not many employ it. Granted you still have to use your judgement, but it makes a draft much more stable and is an easy strategy to execute. I'll break down the differential below by the strategy given above. After the 8th round, stock your depth and try to swoop in and snag a sleeper or two. This strategy below with the addition of a common variety kicker will yield a projected 115 points per week based on standard yahoo scoring. Best of luck in your upcoming fantasy season!

Diferential:
1. RB-73 points
2. WR-36 points
3. RB-30.5
4. RB-54 points
5. WR-31 points
6. QB- 55.75 points
7. TE-33 points
8. DEF-32 points (between 9-10)
\

Fantasy Football: Doug Martin vs CJ Spiller

By Brett Baker on August 27, 2013 | houstonbias.com 

Doug Martin obviously had an outstanding rookie season last year, but is he worthy of the #2 ranking that Yahoo! gave him? I think so. Martin had 1,454 rushing yards, 472 receiving yards, and scored a total of 12 TD's. LaGarrette Blount, who is no longer on the team, vultured away 2 additional TD's. Martin will be even more of a touchdown scoring machine this season.

Martin had all that success last year with an injured offensive line. He has 2 pro-bowl linemen returning ( Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph ) this year, so expect The Muscle Hamster's YPC to increase. Doug Martin will have another monster year.

CJ Spiller is one of the hardest people to tackle in the NFL. He only averaged 12 carries a game last season and rushed for 1,244 yards and 6 TD's. Spiller is without a doubt better than Fred Jackson and is finally getting the starting job. With CJ's carries doubling this year, the sky is the limit. If he stays healthy and can continue to produce with a mediocre offense around him, he could get real close to 2,000 yards.

It's a bit of a stretch to draft CJ Spiller over Doug Martin. The Buc's team as a whole is better than the Bills, which means they will be running the ball a lot more to take time off the clock when they have the lead. The Bills have a weak passing attack, so Spiller will be seeing 8 guys in the box quite frequently. Both guys will have stellar seasons but i think Doug Martin is the safer pick here. 

Fasntasy Football: 2013 WR & RB Sleepers

     Here at Houston Bias we are avid Fantasy Football fans, so naturally we've decided to create a new installment of our coverage in reference to Fantasy Football. Considering we are all in a league together, we questioned divulging our deepest darkest secrets and sleepers, but for your benefit we have decided to do just that. Here are a few of our later round sleepers.

By Zachary Morgan | astrosbias.com

Chris Ivory | RB | NYJ
Although Chris Ivory has received a fair amount of recognition as a sleeper, I think people are underestimating his ceiling. Granted, small sample size comes into play, but over his 256 career carries he is averaging a fantastic 5.1 yards a carry. If Ivory had enough carries to qualify last year, he would've ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC after contact. Considering Shonn Greene caught at most 30 passes as the primary back, Ivory will be more valuable in standard scoring rather than PPR formats in the Jets system. The Jets distributed 276 carries last season to Greene, and 110 to Powell. Every single carry Greene handled as well as 20+ carries from Powell will likely be distributed to Ivory.As the premier back in New York, assuming he remains healthy, I envision Ivory with a ceiling of 300 carries, 1300 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Given, that's best case scenario, and there's definitely a risk that comes in taking a guy with little to no track record. If you can get Chris Ivory after the 9th, I would absolutely jump all over him and slot him cautiously optimistic in the flex slot.

Ryan Broyles | WR | DET
Injury comes as a bit of a concern here considering he's had reconstructive ACL surgery twice, but due to the fact that there's no clear 2nd option in Detroit, there's certainly some upside there. Calvin Johnson will demand a team's premier corner week in and week out, as well as the occasional double team. The Lions will once again be among the leagues leaders in passing attempts at 727, and although Reggie Bush will play a large role in that pass game, Stafford already targeted running backs 148 times last year, therefore, there wont be much of a change in differential considering Reggie will see most likely 100+ of those. Johnson will demand 200 targets, Bush 130, Pettigrew 100, Burleson around 50, and that leaves around 260 targets up for grabs. In his limited time last year, Broyles averaged a very solid 14 YPC. The Titus Young experiment is over, and Detroit is desperately searching for a 2nd reciever, Broyles is first in line, and on the brink of a solid year. He's going very late if taken at all, Ryan may be more valuable in standard scoring leagues as opposed to PPR formats given the amount of balls CJ will catch yet again this year. Look for him as a late round sleeper or a possible waiver wire pickup, stash him on the bench and he may reward you as a WR3 in a deep league format.

T.Y. Hilton | WR | IND
In a deep year at wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton profiles as a great value pick in the later portion of the draft with a fairly high upside. Consider T.Y.'s big play ability, along with Hilton's increased workload as the teams 2nd receiver, and it's hard to miss here. 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown potential is insane value for Hilton, going 9th, early 10th round in Yahoo mock drafts. T.Y. had only 91 targets to work with last year and still managed to post 861 yards and 7 touchdowns on only 50 catches. Although he owned a very high 17.2 YPC last year and he'll most likely see regression there, his increased workload and emphasis as a centerpiece within the offense should absolutely make up for a possible regression in YPC. T.Y. profiles as a very serviceable WR3 in most formats. If he's still available in latter portions of the draft, jump all over him.


By Brett Baker | houstonbias.com

When it comes to sleepers I look at upside, drafting round, and what the player is capable of doing athletically. My three sleepers are:

Daryl Richardson - Richardson is going in the 9th or 10th round in Yahoo and ESPN mock drafts as of now. Head coach Jeff Fisher officially named Richardson as the Rams' starting RB for this season. Another plus is that Isaiah Pead is suspended Week 1 for possession of marijuana, so expect Richardson to get 20+ carries against the weak run defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Richardson averaged 4.8 yards a carry on only 98 carries last season. If you give Richardson over 200 touches this year and goal line opportunities, I see him rushing for 1,200 yards and 6 TDs. The Rams will have a decent passing game this year with their speedy Wide Receivers, so Richardson should have a lot of room to work. I recommend taking him in the 8th round as your flex. You won't be disappointed.

Shane Vereen - The poor man's Darren Sproles. Shane Vereen single handedly destroyed the Houston Texans in the playoffs last year and I'm still pretty angry. He rushed 7 times for 41 yards and 1 TD. He also had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 TDs. Vereen scored 30 fantasy points that week with only 12 total total touches. The Patriots lost Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, and Gronk will be sidelined until late september. Bill Belichick will have no choice but to release his secret weapon, Shane Vereen. I expect him to get 15-20 total touches a game. He will be used a lot as a WR this season because Vereen has fantastic hands. Vereen is being drafted in the 9th and 10th rounds in mocks this year, and I think that's way to low. Draft him late 8th- early 9th as a flex player. He has more upside than any other sleeper in my opinion. There's very little risk and very high rewards when drafting him in the later rounds.

Lance Moore - Lance Moore has proven that he is a solid backup fantasy WR. Last season he scored more fantasy points than guys like Torrey Smith, Stevie Johnson, and Miles Austin; who are all being drafted before Moore. Steve Smith, who is being drafted in the 7th, scored only 1 more fantasy point than Lance Moore last season. You will be able to pick Moore up in the 10th round, which is fantastic value. With Devery Henderson out of the way in New Orleans, Moore is now the official WR2 of the Saints. He will see more playing time and more balls being thrown his way. He has always been one of Drew Brees' favorite targets (105 passes thrown to Moore last season). Expect Moore to have around 125 targets, 75 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and 8 TDs this season. If one of your starting WRs is on a bye week, Lance Moore is the guy you want to be your WR3.

Houston Bias Fantasy Football Mock Draft

     Three members of Houston Bias took part in a mock draft this Friday that would make Matthew Berry weep like a schoolboy. On the Yahoo mock draft Brett had the 2nd pick, Zac had the 6th, and Keaton had the 10th and final selection. Following are the results of the mock draft. Houston Bias analysis on sleepers, rankings, and everything fantasy football soon to come!


Zachary Morgan: Astros writer and superior fantasy footballer..

Overall, I was fairly pleased with my draft. I'd take back the Ryan Mathews pick, as well as my final 4 rounds. DeAndre would've fallen further, and Bey was a wasted pick. I'm in a peculiar situation this year considering I am without a 2nd round selection, and have extra picks in round 5. It will be tricky but I have a strategy I believe will work swimmingly; I will not divulge my strategy at this time considering I am in a league with the two buzzards below me. All in all, pretty safe squad, good enough to get a foot in the playoff door no doubt barring injury.

1. Marshawn Lynch | RB | SEA - Clear top 5 back guaranteed his touches. Redzone monster.
2nd. A.J. Green | WR | CIN - Top 3 reciever, a no brainer mid-2nd rounder. Expect 1500/12.
3rd. Frank Gore | RB | SF - Old faithful. YPC increased last year. Very content with him at RB2
4th. Vincent Jackson | WR | TB - Very serviceable WR2. Featured target in TB, good for 1100/8
5th. Matt Ryan | QB | ATL - Elite fantasy numbers, great value in a very deep QB draft class.
6th. Tony Gonzalez | TE | ATL - Old faithful 2.0. 3rd most targeted TE, can't pass regardless of wear
7th. Ryan Mathews | RB | SD - My flex. Very concerned regarding injury probability, upside remains.
8th. HOUSTON | D/ST - YEE YEE! My league overvalues defense so I took THE #1 D rather early.
9th. Stephen Gostkowski | K | NE - League high PATs. Elite kicker, solid 10 spot a week.
10th. Vincent Brown | WR | SD - My first sleeper pick. W/ injury in San Diego, he'll get his targets
11th. Andy Dalton | QB | CIN - Very solid backup QB, will rack up numbers alongside Green.
12th. DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU - Undervalued. We're run first, but he may catch 60+ this year.
13th. Martellus Bennett | TE | CHI - Serviceable back-up TE. Still think he has untapped upside.
14th. Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | IND - Spur of the moment pick. Colts will run more this year.
15th. Matty Schaub | QB | HOU - MATTY! Another year W/ Graham and now Hopkins... has his weapons, I expect 4000/25. Naturally we're run first, but Schauby runs that play action like a mug, and with another weapon in his redzone arsenal, Kubiak may let him toss it more often in scoring situations.


Brett Baker: Rockets writer and superior-er fantasy footballer

I was happy with my draft. I started out strong and screwed up when drafting Lamar Miller in the 4th instead of a much needed WR. I implemented my strategy, which was to take away as many Running Backs as I could. RB is not very deep this year so get 'em while you can. Overall my team is decent. With Arian Foster and Aaron Rodgers on your team you can't be bad.

1. Arian Foster (Hou - RB) - Obvious top 2 pick. Houston will run, run and... run
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB) - #1 QB, but I probably should've grabbed AJ Green

3. Stevan Ridley (NE - RB)- 12 TDs last year and NE has no reliable receivers

4. Lamar Miller (Mia - RB)- I took him too early. Who knows though, he has upside

5. Danny Amendola (NE - WR)- Has the potential to be the new Wes Welker IF healthy

6. Jordy Nelson (GB - WR)- Too many injury-prone WRs for me 

7. Cecil Shorts (Jac -WR) - "The producer". Blackmon suspended. Shorts is the man

8. Eddie Lacy (GB - RB)- Adding RB depth

9. Chris Ivory (NYJ - RB)- Starting RB in round 9? Don't mind if I do

10. Ronnie Hillman (Den - RB)- There's a chance he might be the starter. Who knows

11. Lance Moore (NO - WR)- Henderson is gone. More playing time for Moore

12. Michael Vick (Phi - QB)- He was Keaton's starting QB last year

13. Jordan Cameron (Cle - TE)- Weeden's main target. 2 TDs yesterday!!

14. Tampa Bay (TB - DEF)- Play the match ups. They play the Jets week 1...

15. David Akers (Det - K)- The Lions can't score in the redzone 

Check out my #1 draft pick: http://goo.gl/8635ig


Keaton Bradshaw: Texans writer and superior-erest fantasy footballer...

I thought I had a solid draft considering I was somehow awarded with the last pick once again. With my options running thin, I made the safe pick taking Steven Jackson at #10. The benefit of the last pick is that you also get the pick immediately following it each time you make a selection so I had some nice back to back pickups throughout the draft. I was particularly pleased with nabbing Peyton Manning at the beginning of the fourth while drafting Andre Johnson the pick before that. Both are perennial top 5 players at their position and would give me solid fantasy numbers.

1. Steven Jackson (Atl - RB) - Not the pick I wanted to make in the 1st but it's a safe one nonetheless. He will be the featured back on an Atlanta team that desperately needs his red zone presence.
2. Trent Richardson (Cle - RB) - My frown soon turned upside down as I realized how nicely my RB positions were filled with these back to back picks. Richardson must remain healthy but could be a monster if he does.
3. Andre Johnson (Hou - WR) - AJ has the potential to be one of the top 3 receivers each season that he plays and this one is no different than any other. Last season made me feel great about his health and I believe he will have another great year. Was a steal to me with the 30th pick.
4. Peyton Manning (Den - QB) - As reliable as it gets when it comes to QBs. He had no problems last year coming off of neck surgery and its reported that his arm strength has improved drastically. Look for him to air it out a lot more this year and rack up some long TDs.
5. Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR) - Another reliable player, Wayne will be the number one option for Andrew Luck once again and I'm expecting Luck to improve on a magnificent rookie season. I'm thinking at least 1200/12.
6. Mike Wallace (Mia - WR) - Mike Wallace has looked good this preseason and he's as fast as they come. He can seriously burn some guys out there, its incredible. If he keeps his mind in check and plays smart, he could have a huge year as the go-to guy for an improving Tannehill.
7. Andrew Luck (Ind - QB) - He had a truly great rookie season and I'm expecting him to improve upon it greatly considering how high his football IQ is. I'm looking for him to throw to the tune of 32+ TDs and 15 or less picks this year. He also has the potential to throw for over 4,500 yards easy.
8. Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE) - If I could take this pick back I probably would. The talent is certainly there with Rudolph, I just don't think he will get the same looks that he got last year. I totally forgot to factor in that Greg Jennings will be with the Vikings this year and will take away from those 9 TDs he had last year. Cordarrelle Patterson will take away from those looks as well.
9. Arizona (Ari - DEF) - I really like the look of this Arizona secondary that got a lot more dangerous with the addition of Tyrann Mathieu. Under the tutelage of Patrick Peterson I really look for him to excel. The team already finished second in the league last year with 22 picks and I'm expecting that number to improve. Speaking of Patrick Peterson... That guy can really return some punts, huh.
10. Stevie Johnson (Buf - WR) - EJ Manuel looked pretty nice in the preseason up until his injury and I'm expecting to see him slated in as the starter. That only spells good things for the Bills leading receiver.
11. Mark Ingram (NO - RB) - This was kind of a meh pick to me, I'm not too concerned with it but he has the potential to be a sleeper. He has shown tremendous flashes of talent and now with Chris Ivory in New York, the door is wide open.
12. Randy Bullock (Hou - K) - I loved this pick. Bullock has potential to be an NFL mainstay at the kicking position and I was so disappointed last year when he had to miss the entire year. He has looked real nice through this preseason and I believe he will be one of the top 5 kickers in fantasy this year.
13. Cordarrelle Patterson (Min - WR) - I would've rather taken Hopkins instead of Patterson, which was the plan until he got snagged just before this. Still can't complain about this pick though as Patterson has a great build and has shown flashes of brilliance so far. Christian Ponder may very well be his biggest downfall at the end of the day.
14. Andre Brown (NYG - RB) - If David Wilson doesn't take a massive step forward and become elite, Brown will return to the starting gig and get his touches like he did before his injury. I thought this was a solid sleeper pick and look for him to improve on his stats from last year. 8 touchdowns on 385 carries was nice and no fumbles to go along with that is an even better look.
15. Zach Miller (Sea - TE) - I literally based this pick off of his performance in Seattle's playoff loss against the Falcons last season. He had a stellar game and the best one I've ever personally witnessed from a tight end in a playoff game. The fact of the matter is that he is in reality a pedestrian TE at best and will have very average numbers this year. There is a lot of overturn in fantasy football so I don't value the last couple of picks very highly.