Friday, August 23, 2013
Fasntasy Football: 2013 WR & RB Sleepers
Here at Houston Bias we are avid Fantasy Football fans, so naturally we've decided to create a new installment of our coverage in reference to Fantasy Football. Considering we are all in a league together, we questioned divulging our deepest darkest secrets and sleepers, but for your benefit we have decided to do just that. Here are a few of our later round sleepers.
By Zachary Morgan | astrosbias.com
Chris Ivory | RB | NYJ
Although Chris Ivory has received a fair amount of recognition as a sleeper, I think people are underestimating his ceiling. Granted, small sample size comes into play, but over his 256 career carries he is averaging a fantastic 5.1 yards a carry. If Ivory had enough carries to qualify last year, he would've ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC after contact. Considering Shonn Greene caught at most 30 passes as the primary back, Ivory will be more valuable in standard scoring rather than PPR formats in the Jets system. The Jets distributed 276 carries last season to Greene, and 110 to Powell. Every single carry Greene handled as well as 20+ carries from Powell will likely be distributed to Ivory.As the premier back in New York, assuming he remains healthy, I envision Ivory with a ceiling of 300 carries, 1300 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Given, that's best case scenario, and there's definitely a risk that comes in taking a guy with little to no track record. If you can get Chris Ivory after the 9th, I would absolutely jump all over him and slot him cautiously optimistic in the flex slot.
Ryan Broyles | WR | DET
Injury comes as a bit of a concern here considering he's had reconstructive ACL surgery twice, but due to the fact that there's no clear 2nd option in Detroit, there's certainly some upside there. Calvin Johnson will demand a team's premier corner week in and week out, as well as the occasional double team. The Lions will once again be among the leagues leaders in passing attempts at 727, and although Reggie Bush will play a large role in that pass game, Stafford already targeted running backs 148 times last year, therefore, there wont be much of a change in differential considering Reggie will see most likely 100+ of those. Johnson will demand 200 targets, Bush 130, Pettigrew 100, Burleson around 50, and that leaves around 260 targets up for grabs. In his limited time last year, Broyles averaged a very solid 14 YPC. The Titus Young experiment is over, and Detroit is desperately searching for a 2nd reciever, Broyles is first in line, and on the brink of a solid year. He's going very late if taken at all, Ryan may be more valuable in standard scoring leagues as opposed to PPR formats given the amount of balls CJ will catch yet again this year. Look for him as a late round sleeper or a possible waiver wire pickup, stash him on the bench and he may reward you as a WR3 in a deep league format.
T.Y. Hilton | WR | IND
In a deep year at wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton profiles as a great value pick in the later portion of the draft with a fairly high upside. Consider T.Y.'s big play ability, along with Hilton's increased workload as the teams 2nd receiver, and it's hard to miss here. 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown potential is insane value for Hilton, going 9th, early 10th round in Yahoo mock drafts. T.Y. had only 91 targets to work with last year and still managed to post 861 yards and 7 touchdowns on only 50 catches. Although he owned a very high 17.2 YPC last year and he'll most likely see regression there, his increased workload and emphasis as a centerpiece within the offense should absolutely make up for a possible regression in YPC. T.Y. profiles as a very serviceable WR3 in most formats. If he's still available in latter portions of the draft, jump all over him.
By Brett Baker | houstonbias.com
When it comes to sleepers I look at upside, drafting round, and what the player is capable of doing athletically. My three sleepers are:
Daryl Richardson - Richardson is going in the 9th or 10th round in Yahoo and ESPN mock drafts as of now. Head coach Jeff Fisher officially named Richardson as the Rams' starting RB for this season. Another plus is that Isaiah Pead is suspended Week 1 for possession of marijuana, so expect Richardson to get 20+ carries against the weak run defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Richardson averaged 4.8 yards a carry on only 98 carries last season. If you give Richardson over 200 touches this year and goal line opportunities, I see him rushing for 1,200 yards and 6 TDs. The Rams will have a decent passing game this year with their speedy Wide Receivers, so Richardson should have a lot of room to work. I recommend taking him in the 8th round as your flex. You won't be disappointed.
Shane Vereen - The poor man's Darren Sproles. Shane Vereen single handedly destroyed the Houston Texans in the playoffs last year and I'm still pretty angry. He rushed 7 times for 41 yards and 1 TD. He also had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 TDs. Vereen scored 30 fantasy points that week with only 12 total total touches. The Patriots lost Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, and Gronk will be sidelined until late september. Bill Belichick will have no choice but to release his secret weapon, Shane Vereen. I expect him to get 15-20 total touches a game. He will be used a lot as a WR this season because Vereen has fantastic hands. Vereen is being drafted in the 9th and 10th rounds in mocks this year, and I think that's way to low. Draft him late 8th- early 9th as a flex player. He has more upside than any other sleeper in my opinion. There's very little risk and very high rewards when drafting him in the later rounds.
Lance Moore - Lance Moore has proven that he is a solid backup fantasy WR. Last season he scored more fantasy points than guys like Torrey Smith, Stevie Johnson, and Miles Austin; who are all being drafted before Moore. Steve Smith, who is being drafted in the 7th, scored only 1 more fantasy point than Lance Moore last season. You will be able to pick Moore up in the 10th round, which is fantastic value. With Devery Henderson out of the way in New Orleans, Moore is now the official WR2 of the Saints. He will see more playing time and more balls being thrown his way. He has always been one of Drew Brees' favorite targets (105 passes thrown to Moore last season). Expect Moore to have around 125 targets, 75 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and 8 TDs this season. If one of your starting WRs is on a bye week, Lance Moore is the guy you want to be your WR3.
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