Targeting Texans' Needs Moving Forward

By Zachary Morgan | HoustonBias.com

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     Although there were bumps in the road down the stretch of the 2012 season that were cause for concern, fans, oddsmakers, and analysts alike threw caution to the wind, and dubbed the Houston Texans a favorite for a Super Bowl bid. Eleven games into the tumultuous 2013 season, and from top to bottom, the Texans have holes like Camp Greenlake. As we patiently awaited the coming season with utmost optimism, Rick Smith played his little game of chess with this roster, mixing and matching pieces in the off-season. On the defensive side of the ball, band-aids Joe Mays, and hall-of-fame ballhawk Ed Reed were inked to deals to bolster weak depth at ILB and safety after departures of Tim Dobbins, and Glover Quinn. Strong Safety DJ Swearinger was added via the NFL draft and expected to impact the squad almost immediately. Whitney Mercilus was slotted at starting OLB after Connor Barwin departed to the city of brotherly love, and Earl Mitchell took the reigns at Nose Tackle after the man with two first names Shaun Cody was not re-signed. On offense, Right Tackle Ryan Harris was resigned to bolster the line with a suspect Derek Newton coming off surgery, and most notably with the 27th overall selection in the draft DeAndre Hopkins was drafted to address the need at Wide Receiver. Greg Jones was signed to start at Fullback in place of James Casey who was poached by Philly via free agency, and the squad was set to go. On paper, this was the year. The unanimous consensus was that this was the best team the Texans had assembled since their inception, and it wasn't even a discussion.

     In hindsight, there were several glaring needs in place, and poor play from a shell of what was once Ed Reed, the line in general, Matt Schaub, head-scratching play calls and offensive scheme alike, and several injuries certainly have not helped. From Super Bowl hopes to a bottom dwelling scuffle for an upper tier draft selection. Wow. A twist that Quentin Tarantino himself could not have foreseen. In the words of San Diego's finest, "that escalated quickly, I mean that really got out of hand fast". A NINE game losing streak has illuminated ares in which the squad needs to improve for the long term. As far as coaching goes, that's another rabbit hole I won't be chasing in this article, but for the record, yes I do believe the coaching staff needs to be blown to kingdom come. Given that there is only $1,487,261 available in cap space, the draft will be key improving the squad for the coming campaign. Lets break it down by position and see what needs an upgrade, if said position should be addressed via draft or free agency, and what is available on the market to address those needs.


QB:
Lets start with the position that has garnered the most attention this season by far. Matt Schaub is not in future plans, and I would be absolutely floored if he was in a Texans uniform come next season. Is Houston's son Case Keenum the long term answer under center? He's shown glimpses in his short time that he is a special ballplayer with the ability to create and salvage, but he's also shown the inability to read defensive packages. Case is young and growing pains are to be expected, but is it time to give him the reigns? For the remainder of this season, absolutely. For the long term? Maybe, maybe not, and we will likely know by seasons end, but regardless, someone else needs to be brought in. The best available QB in free agency is Jay Cutler, and I would really rather not, no thank you. Considering your remaining schedule, and the absolute cluster that is this Texans team, it isn't unreasonable to assume we will be picking top 2, and very likely within reach of the top pick after showcasing how poor the Texans are via the Jags loss. Given the state of uncertainty at the QB position in Houston, if you have an opportunity to nab a special play caller at the top of the draft, you have to do so. The Texans may not be in position for a good while to snatch a franchise guy, and they can't balk at this opportunity. Now granted, because of the depth of this class and the Vikings and Jaguars need for a QB, the Texans would be hard pressed to pass on a Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr, or Khalil Mack type if the top 2 or 3 QB's are taken, therefore a QB may be taken off the board in the second with guys like AJ McCarron, Zach Mettengerger, and Brett Hundley rumored to available near that area of the draft. Come 2014, either Case Keenum or a highly touted draftee such as Marcus Mariota, or Teddy Bridgewater, will be at the helm, and will hopefully be the long term answer. Bridgewater2014

RB:
There's a lot of uncertainty here. Can Arian bounce back after back surgery? With Ben Tate likely gone to free agency, there's nothing in house that can become a reliable RB2 with the ability to step-up given Fosters injury history. After his little coming out party against Jacksonville, hopefully the coaching staff increases Dennis Johnson's workload moving forward, so we can see what we have there. A running back will be acquired whether it be through the draft or via free agency. Free agency boasts several RB2 options including Toby Gerhart, LeGarrette Blount, Dexter McCluster, James Starks, Chris Ogbonnaya, Bernard Scott, and Rashard Mendenhall. Vast majority of those options would be very cost effective and require very little cap hit. There are also several intriguing options in rounds 2-5 including De'Anthony Thomas, and Charles Sims. I certainly could see a scenario where a veteran back is brought in via free agency and one is as well selected in the first 4 rounds of the draft. Now hinging on Arian's health, it may be in the organizations best interest to move him for picks in this upcoming loaded draft to provide financial flexibility moving forward if the Texans can get reasonable value in return. The Texans are handicapped as far as cap space, and Foster may not have much longer of a shelf life at this stage in his career after carrying the load in a run heavy offense over the last several years. In that scenario the Texans could move on with more freedom in the cap and ink a possible RB1 type in a Joique Bell, Andre Brown, or Rashad Jennings, as well as seek to fill the void via the draft. 

RT:
The Derek Newton experiment has to be coming to a close. Newton has had an absolutely dreadful second year in the league, with zero signs of improvement, in fact if he's shown anything at all, it's regression. The big man lacks the lateral quickness and agility to contain elite hedge pass rushers. Derek has posted a -15.9 value via profootballfocus, allowing 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 26 hurries. 26. It's time to move forward and relegate Newton to fewer snaps. Michael Oher, Eugene Monroe, and branden albert are all available in free agency, and although they may not garner many pro-bowl votes, they would suffice more so than the likes of Newton. However, given the squads salary cap situation a free agent of any worth is unlikely to be brought on board unless purchased at veterans minimum. Coming off the IR, 3rd round selection Brennan Williams will be in the mix next camp, and there are several options in the draft including James Hurst, an intriguing senior Tackle out of North Carolina with need for refinement in footwork but 1st round upside, Seantrel Henderson, a big RT out of Miami with an ideal combination of size and speed with a near 5 flat 40 time, or Brandon Scherff, an Iowa product with solid polish on both blocking spectrums slotted to go near the top of the second round. There's a lot of value in rounds 2-4 this year at the position, and a long term solution is needed. Look for the Texans to fill the position via the draft, specifically within rounds 4-5. 

DE:
The ninja assassin Antonio Smith is spending likely his last season in Houston. With free agency on the horizon, and salary cap restraints like no mans business, Smiths asking price will surely be more than Rick Smith and company can provide. Michael Bennett, Shaun Phillips, and Greg Hardy are all viable options on the market, but will cost just as much, if not more than Antonio. The draft or in house options will have to be the answer. The next man up would be second year man Jared Crick or Tim Jamison, so a DE will most certainly be taken in the draft to compete for a spot opposite JJ Watt. The sexy name here would be South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney. If by some divine act, the Texans aren't in position to take Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota, an intriguing strategy going into the draft would be to select Clowney at the top of the first, and opt to take high upside guy like Tajh Boyd at the top of the second. If the Texans don't elect to nab Clowney, interesting names at the top of the second and after include Trent Murphy, and Kony Ealy. Another plan of action to consider would be slotting Whitney Mercilus back into DE if Wade Phillips & co. feel he would be better suited in that role moving forward. Mercy's skillset centers much more so around pass rush, and OLB is stocked in the draft. It will be interesting to see whether LB or DE receives priority in the draft from the second on, and I would rather Bridgewater or Mariota, but my goodness a duo of Watt and Clowney? AFC South squads are weak at the knees just at the thought. 

ILB:
Daryl Sharpton and Joe Mays man the middle in the absence of Brian Cushing, and while they haven't done abysmal, there's a lot of uncertainty here moving forward. Mays was a band-aid signing to bolster depth at a weak slot, and Sharpton finds himself on far to many injury reports with regularity. Cush has sustained his second consecutive season ending injury, and while they can be contributed to poor luck, it remains to be seen whether he can continue to play at the level expected of him after a second reconstructive knee surgery in the past two calendar years. If I had to put money on it, I would bet on Cushing returning to form considering the mans work ethic and absolutely insane fire within. Wade Phillips has expressed interest in moving Brooks Reed inside, and OLB is absolutely stocked with upper tier talent. Options in free agency include Karlos Dansby, Daryl Smith, Brandon Spikes, Jonathan Vilma, and Jon Beason. None of those names suffice as long term solutions, and likewise, the Texans don't have a pocketbook deep enough to compensate them for a semi-long term deal. Dansby is an intriguing option, although he's on the wrong side of 30, he's still playing at a fairly high level. If the front office can clear some cap space, a two year deal at the right price is certainly worth listening on. In the draft, Christian Jones, Shayne Skov, Chris Borland, and Lamin Barrow headline the ILB class, with Jones leading the pack. Although there's a couple of high motor, as well as high upside guys, there are more questions than answers after Christian Jones comes off the board. Jones would be a steal if he falls where he's currently projected to go by CBS sports at number 55 overall. The Florida State senior isn't a strong pass rusher, but sticks very well in pass coverage, and has displayed the ability to shed blocks and run stop well. He would slot perfectly into a Wade Phillips 3-4 scheme. Violation of team rules has hurt his draft stock thus far, but a strong combine likely moves him to the top of the second round which puts the Texans in position to nab him. A Cushing, Jones middle would be absolutely beautiful, and would sure that area of the defense for the foreseeable future. 

FS:
shiloh Keo has stepped up fairly well after the Ed Reed debacle, but is more depth at the position than starter moving forward. Although injury to Daniel Manning forced SS DJ Swearinger into a starting role earlier than intended, he has handled it swimmingly, adjusting well in his first year and is the future at the position. The viable options in free agency are all natural SS's, therefore the position will have to be filled via the draft. DB's available in the draft include Terrence Brooks, Hasean Clinton-Dix, Tre Boston, Dion Bailey, Ty Zimmerman, and LaMarcus Joyner. Although Dix is renowned as the top FS in the draft, he figures to go mid-late first round and will almost certainly be off the board when the Texans pick at the top of round 2. The most intriguing guy in this class is LaMarcus Joyner, and may be an option for the Texans as he's projected to go early-mid 2nd, with high upside. Joyner, although small in stature at 5'8 190lbs, is an absolute spark plug in the secondary. He has shown the ability to cover on the outside and displays instincts that are second to none. Many scouts consider him polished far beyond his years, and describe him as a ballhawk. Although given his stature, he may very well have trouble with larger receivers and tight ends at the next level, he seems like a guy that traditionalism is handcuffing off the loosely based assessment of his size. I would be pleased with either Christian Jones or LaMarcus Joyner with the 2nd round selection, as both positions desperately need an answer for the long term, but Free Safety appears to be the slot most in need of improvement. 

In closing, there several holes that need to be filled, and there is very little cap space to tend to them. Given a solid draft, and needed change in the structure of the organization, the Texans still have several pieces and could be a repeat of the 2013 Chiefs. Given the amount of holes in the roster though, the presence of a franchise QB is ever more necessary to mask weakness in the squad. If the Houston Texans do end up with the number one or two selection in the draft, they can't pass on Marcus Maroita, or Teddy Bridgewater. From there they are set to pick up a fixture for the future to bolster either FS or ILB. In order to avoid a legitimate long term bottoming out that requires the Texans to shed deals and cut bait, they need to turn in a solid draft class for the next 2-3 years. Expect a quiet offseason on the free agency front, but I expect, and need fireworks come draft day.