Cold Stove Heats Up: Astros Acquire Dexter Fowler

By Zachary Morgan | HoustonBias.com

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         Come roughly 5PM yesterday, Jeff Luhnow subliminally channeled his inner Brian Wilson to the tune of "Uhhh, yeah. Papa's feelin' a little delicious today. Gonna do a little wheelin' with a touch of dealin'. You're welcome Houston." regarding the deal that draped Dexter Fowler in Astros orange. The wizardry that is the work of the General Manager continued with likely his most notable deal to date. News broke yesterday that the Astros had reached a deal with the Colorado Rockies acquiring OF Dexter Fowler and a PTBNL in exchange for RHP Jordan Lyles and OF Brandon Barnes. As icing on the cake, the PTBNL is actually considered to be a key factor in the deal, which is absurd given I was more than pleased with nothing more than Dex in return.

          The rebuilding process is nearing a close, as the front office has opted to begin garnering pieces that can legitimately benefit the squad immediately. This is no band-aid of days past circa 2006, this is a deal that allows the Astros to receive a 27 year old fringe all-star caliber player, that can impact the organization in the long term if Luhnow & Co. choose to extend him. Dex is a bit of a toolshed, and brings a lot to the table, including elite ability in the lead-off slot. The speedy outfielder is a great fit in the spacious confines of Minute Maid Park. Although skewed by the cavernous Coors field, his defensive metrics aren't too kind to him, but he is capable of covering a lot of ground and playing average to occasional above average defense aided by his speed tool. Fowler owns a plus on base tool, respectable pop from the lead off position, and above average ability to run the bases. Although he doesn't swipe bases at an alarming rate, the switch hitting center fielder is more than capable of doing so and has intriguing speed that can be described as quick rather than fast. That's my Skip Bayless-esque analysis on his wheels.

          Dexter brings credibility to an Astros line-up that has lacked it over the last several campaigns, and is now apart of the wave to come of upper tier talent that will be infused into the big league squad. Now what does this do to George Springer? Not much in the short term as he will likely be held out until after the super 2 date regardless, but that's another discussion we'll conduct at a later date. Worth mentioning that Dexter seems to be a guy of high character, and a true professional. I was able to hear Dex speak at a Faith & Family night in Colorado after a Rockies game this summer on a trip there, and was very impressed with the way he carries himself. Dexter is well regarded by his teammates, and will be a nice addition to the club house as well as the line-up as he can provide a legitimate professional role model for the continued infusion of youth on the major league roster. 

          Onto what was given up. You don't receive an established starting outfielder at the major league level without parting with something of value in return. Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles were the two the 'Stros had to cut bait on to attain Fowler's services. High flying Brandon Barnes was a fan favorite as he turned in sparkling catch after catch in his tour of duty with the Astros. Although he was well regarded here in Houston, the reality is that Barnesy is a 4th outfielder with a plus glove, and was likely not in future plans as he didn't project to hold down any regular playing time moving forward with the highly touted George Springer on his way to Houston. Granted, Brandon has value and it would've been nice to retain him, but this was a no doubter.

          Jordan Lyles was tough to part with in the sense that the upside is untapped. The upside in Jordan remains as he owns an average to above average arsenal with the frame of a workhorse. The big righty profiles as a middle of the rotation arm if he pans out. Not long ago, Lyles was a highly touted prospect coming in at #42 on MLB's top 100, and although he's been in the show three years already, Jordan is still at the ripe age of 23. He's a very intriguing guy with the potential of putting it all together out of the rotation or transitioning to a bullpen role and sustaining success. I say that to say this, In justifying parting with him, Jordan has 300 innings of major league work under his belt, including 140 innings in consecutive campaigns with 25 starts a pop, therefore the sample size is somewhat extended regardless of his youth and that sample size has not been too attractive. Jordan has lacked the ability to miss bats, and he doesn't own a true out pitch. His GB % has fluctuated sporadically, as well as has the value of his two seam. Lyles four seam offering boasts a negative value, and this past year he saw regression with his two seam as he saw a positive value pitch in 2012 move to a negative value offering in 2013. Jordan has simply been too easy to make contact against as he owns a O-contact %, Z-contact %, and general contact% all above league average. Whether it be in the zone, or out of it, guys aren't having trouble with putting the bat on the ball, and that's a problem for a guy without a high GB rate. Can Jordan Lyles put it together? Who knows, possibly so, but The Astros were given an oppritunity that they could not pass on

          Luhnow, Sig Mejdal, and Co. Obviously see enough that they feel comfortable cutting bait for the return, and I'm among that camp myself. Below are Fowlers face value numbers via baseball-reference.com

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	22	COL	13	27	26	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	.154	.185	.154	.339
2009	23	COL	135	518	433	73	115	29	10	4	34	27	67	116	.266	.363	.406	.770
2010	24	COL	132	505	439	73	114	20	14	6	36	13	57	104	.260	.347	.410	.757
2011	25	COL	125	563	481	84	128	35	15	5	45	12	68	130	.266	.363	.432	.796
2012	26	COL	143	530	454	72	136	18	11	13	53	12	68	128	.300	.389	.474	.863
2013	27	COL	119	492	415	71	109	18	3	12	42	19	65	105	.263	.369	.407	.776