Astros 2013-2014 Off-season: Possible FA Targets

     Although there are a couple pieces on the upcoming free agent market that would suffice as a band-aid and help the good guys string together a few extra wins for the 2014 campaign, that most certainly wont be the strategy the Astros imply, as it shouldn't be. Expect Luhnow and Company to stay the course and execute a similar game-plan to that of last year for the most part, targeting veteran guys on low risk, one year deals with a possible option. Now this off-season, although it's rather unlikely, we may see something out of the ordinary over the last four free agent periods, in that a piece may be targeted to fill a rotation spot on a 2-3 year contract as the rebuild continues to come to fruition. The rest of the way I will discuss the areas of the roster that the Astros will most likely address.

     It goes without saying that the bullpen is the front runner on this roster in need of an overhaul. Recently Bo Porter was quoted as saying relief pitching will be a priority this winter, and at least one veteran arm will be obtained. Considering young guys like Josh Zeid, C.J. Lo, Josh Fields, and Kevin Chapman figure into future plans and are near shoe-ins for next season, that leaves 3 spots for free agency to fill assuming Jose Cisnero will return and Phillip Humber as well as Lucas Harrell won't be in the 'pen next year. Being that Chapman is the only lefty out of the pen, I look for the front office to target a wrong hander, and 1-2 right handed veteran arms. It's unlikely the Astros acquire a starting pitcher, but seeing as how Erik Bedard is a free agent, if he isn't resigned, (which I doubt he will be and that's assuming he isn't moved during the August waiver period) there will be a hole in the rotation that will likely be filled in house via Asher Wojciehowski or a free agent acquisition. Below are the possible Free agent targets that fit the Astros plans and needs...

LHP Bullpen options: 

Manny Parra: 31 
Parra owns a 3.41 ERA in 31.2 IP thus far this season. His career numbers aren't sexy, but he's coming off a good year and should be very cost effective.

Oliver Perez: 32
The former Pittsburgh Pirate ace made the full-time switch to the bullpen in 2012. Since changing his role, Perez has seen incredible success as a result with a 2.65 ERA over 71.1 innings pitched spanning the last two years. He is currently on a 1.5 million dollar deal, and shouldn't see too steep of a price raise. He would be a huge addition to solidifying the back end of the bullpen.

Mike Gonzalez: 36
The Houston native fits the bill for the type of arm the Astros will be targeting. Gonzalez has enjoyed an incredibly successful career with a 3.07 ERA over 11 seasons. Although he owns a 4.25 ERA this season, his 3.83 xFIP and K/9 of 10.8 suggest he's still got it. He should garner no more that 2.25-2.5 million in wages this upcoming season.

RHP Bullpen options: 

Chad Qualls: 35
Former Astro Chad Qualls went on to author a pretty fine career out of the bullpen. The veteran fits the profile that the Astros are seeking, and with a 2.98 ERA in 45.1 IP he can still spin it. With a 1.15 Mil. deal this year, he should come very cheap next year, and may have an interest in returning to the club that drafted him.

Matt Albers: 30
Another Former Astros, Matt Albers sports a 2.85 ERA over the last two years in 107.1 innings of work. The big righty is finishing his last year of arbitration, and should earn near 2 million a year for his fine production the last couple seasons. Considering his hometown just so happens to be Houston, I wouldn't doubt if Albers and the Astros share some mutual interest this offseason.

Matt Guerrier: 35
The righty signed a big deal with the Dodgers to the tune of 3yrs/12Mil. in 2011, and is due to make a considerable amount less this off-season. Guerrier has posted a 4.02 ERA in 123 innings since signing his deal set to expire this season. Luhnow may be able to lure him to Houston with a 1yr/1.75-2mil. deal depending on how the market develops for him.

Joba Chamberlin: 28
This is where it gets intriguing. The Yankees former phenom has had a tough go of it the last several years with bouts of injury inhibiting him from throwing more than 30 innings since 2010. The big righty with a 3.82 ERA over 7 seasons is experiencing his worst campaign to date posting a 4.94 ERA. The metrics lead one to believe that he should see improvement considering he's sporting an abnormal GB rate 10 points below his career norm, a BABIP .24 points higher than career average, and the highest HR/FB rate of his career. Joba still has an elite arsenal with a FB that sits at .7 ticks higher than his career norm at 94.7 MPH, a slider at 85.6 MPH (right at his career average), a curve at 80 MPH (above his career norm), and a change-up that sits at 84.6, right in that 10 MPH differential between the fastball and change. The Astros may intrigue Joba quite a bit if they offer him the closer role. Joba has the stuff, all kinds of upside, should see progress, and may just need a change of scenery. I could see Chamberlin signing to the tune of 2 years with an option at 2-4 million per year. The deal would be mutually beneficial, enhancing Joba's value and acquiring a mainstay at the back end of the 'pen for the Astros.

Starters:

Josh Johnson: RHP 30
Former Marlins ace, and shortly removed upper tier arm in all of major league baseball, Josh Johnson is about to embark on a rather strange off-season. Just a few seasons ago, Johnson was heralded as a perennial Cy Young contender, but injuries compounded by his rough 6.20 ERA and 2-8 record in 81.1 innings this year have severely hurt his impending stock. Although Johnson's ERA this year looks rough on the surface, his 4.61 FIP, and 3.58 xFIP confirm that his recent failures aren't sustainable. A LOB% (left on base %) 11 points lower than his career average as well as a HR/FB rate more than DOUBLE his normal percentage are to blame for his poor performance this campaign. Josh still possesses a solid fastball that averages 93 MPH, a slider at 86, and a curve at 79. The amount of change in velocity he has seen in his arsenal certainly isn't enough to foreshadow oncoming ineffectiveness. I would like to see Luhnow take advantage of his possibly reduced price tag and try to ink him to a deal in the best case scenario window of 2-3yrs/20-28mil, depending on how much stock suitors put into 2013 campaign and how the market develops for him. Once again this deal would be mutually beneficial, and if he shakes the injury bug he should return to peak form and has a shot to contribute as the Astros ascend at the major league level.

Colby Lewis: RHP 34
The big right hander is coming off surgery and for the most part a lost 2013 campaign. Lewis has posted regressing BB/9 rates over the last three years and saw it drop all the way to 1.2 in 2012. Colby owns a 3.93 ERA over his last three seasons and 506 innings of work. Considering he will be going into free agency with little 2013 mound time, his price tag may come rather cheap depending on the market for him. If the Astros give him a call, expect a deal in the range of 1 yr/4mil and look for wizard Luhnow to capitalize on his value at the deadline.

Jeff Karstens: RHP 30
The Buccos right hander is coming off of a lost 2013 campaign going into his first free agency period. Over the last two years with the Pirates, Karstens has proved himself a capable middle to back of the rotation arm. Jeff owns a 3.59 ERA over 2011-2012's 253 innings. Given the deep rotation in Pittsburgh, and the fact that the Pirates struggled over the decision to start him in 2012, he will most definitely hit the open market and considering the injury he will do so with a cheap price tag. A 1yr/3.5 mil. deal with an option should net him.

Roy Oswalt: RHP 36
The wizard of Os. Astro great Roy Oswalt may show some interest in tossing it for the good guys next year if they share mutual interest. The small sample size of the last two years haven't been kind to Roy, but his pitch F/X velocity reveals that he has not lost a step and the limited numbers in Dallas and Colorado don't hold any weight. Only one win away from the Astros all time win record, I personally would love to see him return to break it, and retire an Astro. Roy could provide veteran leadership to a young staff,  and have a nice swan song in Houston. There's not much I can provide as far as numbers to justify the signing, but he's Roy Oswalt, the guy can spin it, I just have a feeling. How fantastic would that be for the fanbase? After the last several dreadful years, this would be a wonderful pick me up that wouldn't hinder long term plans.

On Offense: 
   
     the Astros don't have any holes to fill considering the amount of young depth that's currently getting its shake at playing time and shot at establishing themselves at the major league level. Prior to the deadline, RF was an area of interest approaching the off-season, but after the acquisition of LJ Hoes, that issue became a mute point. Assuming Springer, Grossman, and Hoes get the starting nods in the outfield next year, there will be no need to acquire anyone via free agency especially considering in house solutions to the bench. If anything, Luhnow will take a flyer on a very low risk OF guy to bolster the bench which he has done the last few years. Up the middle, a Nick Punto or Willie Bloomquist type may be targeted to back-up the Villar-Altuve combo. The only other area of the offense that may see some shake up is the 1B/DH spot. Mike Morse is a possibility there considering he has had a less than prolific campaign in his contract year. A sign and flip at the break is a possibility if the front office would like to stash Singleton away in OKC for a bit more seasoning.

     At this point in the rebuild it's hard to say how the winter will be approached. As the depth continues to kick down the major league doors, fewer stop-gap acquisitions will be made, and it will be interesting to see who is acquired as most spots other than the bullpen are taken for at least the remainder of this year and the next. If anyone is targeted outside of the bullpen, it will be to capitalize on free agent value while seasoning and allowing the farm to develop further, bolstering the bench, or sure up at most one rotational slot. I predict that two bullpen arms, two minor league OF deals, a minor league deal middle infielder, and possibly a major league starter will be inked. What do you think will transpire this off-season?