How the Astros Can Adhere to an Innings Limit While Keeping Young Arms in The Rotation for the Post-season Push

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I'm back for my quarterly attempt at Houston sports blogging. With the crucial addition of Scott Kazmir to the rotation, the Astros find themselves in the favorable position of having the flexibility limiting innings moving forward for Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez. How might they perform such a feat, and have both arms participate in October baseball? Lets journey down the rabbit hole.

With the Astros siting at 54-43, only one game behind the division leading Angels, and leading the American League Wild Card race, The good guys are in the thick of it going down the stretch. Oh! glorious day! Contributions from rookie hurlers McCullers and Velasquez have been vital in where the Astros currently sit in the standings, and as such would benefit from avoiding a Stephen Strasburg-esque scenario in which an innings limit brings their respective seasons to a premature close when their ball-club needs them.

With 65 games remaining, the members of the Astros five-man rotation each have 13 respective starts remaining. Although VV was sent to the bullpen, an alternate scenario in which both Velasquez and McCullers start, and limit their innings goes as follows.

Week 1:
1. Keuchel
2. Kazmir
3. McHugh
4. Feldman
5. McCullers

Week 2:
1. Keuchel
2. Kazmir
3. McHugh
4. Feldman
5. Velasquez

Wash, rinse repeat.

To this point in the season, between the minors and the big league level, McCullers has thrown a grand total of 98 innings, and Velasquez sits at 64 innings. McCullers previous career high sits at 104.2 innings, and Velasquez owns a career high of 124.2 innings. Assuming the Astros are implementing an innings limit of around 150 innings or less, with Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez sharing a spot in the rotation, the duo makes roughly six starts a piece, and assuming that they go an average of six frames in those starts, they tack on a guesstimated 36 innings to their total. Lance McCullers ends the year with 134 innings, and Velasquez totals 100 innings upon the close of the regular season. This scenario allows both hurlers to adhere to an innings limit, while allowing the duo to contribute in October, given that the Astros play postseason baseball. Go 'Stros!

Pop City: The High Flying 2015 Houston Astros

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Houston has not been treated to such a laser show since this guy and his cat left town. 

You know what they say, Jeff Luhnow digs the longball. The 2015 Houston Astros will strikeout at a staggering rate, but they will also put a hefty amount of frequent flyer miles on baseballs. Below is a compilation of some yard work the projected line-up has been responsible for over the past two years.

Chris Carter:

Colby Rasmus:

George Springer:

Evan Gattis:

Jon Singleton:

Luis Valbuena:

Jose Altuve:

Jason Castro:

Jed Lowrie:

Houston Astros 2015 Player Projections

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Fans Projections:

Hitters:

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	Fld	BsR	WAR
George Springer	141	528	133	23	6	30	90	96	71	177	22	3	.252	.350	.489	.839	.367	-2.0	2.7	4.4
Evan Gattis	132	507	130	22	2	28	76	84	34	130	0	0	.256	.316	.473	.789	.344	-7.0	-0.5	2.1
Jon Singleton	135	476	111	24	2	23	71	77	76	166	4	2	.233	.338	.437	.775	.341	-5.0	-0.5	1.6
Chris Carter	139	523	120	23	1	32	80	90	63	184	4	1	.229	.314	.461	.775	.339	-4.0	-0.1	1.4
Jose Altuve	156	661	203	37	5	8	93	61	39	69	45	11	.307	.346	.415	.761	.334	-6.0	4.1	3.9
Colby Rasmus	124	467	115	24	3	21	61	65	35	146	4	1	.246	.302	.445	.747	.327	-1.0	0.0	2.2
Luis Valbuena	121	438	109	26	1	12	52	57	59	96	3	2	.249	.339	.395	.734	.327	1.0	-0.6	2.6
Robbie Grossman	99	345	87	17	2	8	40	44	46	91	10	4	.252	.343	.383	.726	.326	0.0	0.1	1.4
Jason Castro	117	433	109	22	2	14	51	55	43	129	2	1	.252	.322	.409	.731	.323	0.0	-0.4	3.1
Hank Conger	84	302	77	16	1	9	35	38	25	73	5	3	.255	.316	.404	.720	.318	-2.0	-0.4	1.8
Jed Lowrie	140	519	135	29	2	11	54	59	52	89	3	1	.260	.328	.387	.715	.317	-1.0	-0.3	2.7
Alex Presley	69	248	65	8	3	4	26	25	14	49	4	1	.262	.306	.367	.673	.300	-1.0	0.2	0.3
Jake Marisnick	110	389	97	13	3	8	41	41	20	99	17	4	.249	.304	.360	.663	.296	9.0	1.5	1.9
Matt Dominguez	135	505	121	20	1	16	49	53	24	104	0	0	.240	.278	.378	.656	.289	-2.0	-0.4	0.8
Jonathan Villar	82	277	63	11	3	6	31	28	22	81	16	3	.227	.287	.354	.641	.286	-5.0	1.8	0.4
Marwin Gonzalez	102	374	95	15	1	4	30	30	20	68	4	1	.254	.294	.332	.626	.279	-3.0	0.1	0.2

Pitchers:

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP	WAR
Josh Fields	3	3	3.75	0	55	3	52.0	41	22	5	62	18	1.13	10.73	3.12	3.15	0.6
Chad Qualls	2	4	3.46	0	61	8	57.0	55	22	5	45	12	1.18	7.11	1.89	3.38	0.4
Collin McHugh	12	9	3.36	29	29	0	179.0	163	67	20	173	50	1.19	8.70	2.51	3.57	2.8
Dallas Keuchel	13	9	3.53	31	31	0	203.0	200	80	18	158	56	1.26	7.00	2.48	3.64	2.8
Brett Oberholtzer	9	10	3.90	27	27	0	159.0	167	69	17	113	34	1.26	6.40	1.92	3.80	2.1
Scott Feldman	10	10	3.96	29	29	0	172.0	171	76	17	119	52	1.30	6.23	2.72	4.03	1.7
Brad Peacock	7	8	4.42	21	21	0	114.0	107	56	16	108	50	1.38	8.53	3.95	4.51	0.7

Steamer Projections:

Hitters:

Name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Chris Carter	530	118	23	1	32	76	83	67	192	4	2	.223	.314	.453	.767	116	9.5	-15.8	1.5
George Springer	489	115	19	2	25	71	70	59	165	15	7	.234	.324	.439	.763	116	10.3	-8.4	2.2
Jose Altuve	614	184	37	2	9	83	62	37	61	35	15	.299	.341	.411	.752	113	10.5	-3.0	3.2
Evan Gattis	528	128	26	2	28	69	81	33	127	1	1	.243	.295	.459	.754	110	5.8	-13.1	1.2
Jed Lowrie	512	132	30	2	12	64	59	49	86	1	1	.258	.326	.397	.722	105	2.1	-0.6	2.2
Colby Rasmus	516	120	25	2	23	67	69	48	166	4	2	.232	.300	.422	.723	103	3.1	-3.1	2.0
Luis Valbuena	321	75	16	2	10	42	37	42	72	2	2	.234	.324	.386	.710	102	0.7	1.5	1.6
Jon Singleton	226	48	9	1	10	31	29	34	76	2	1	.213	.317	.389	.706	101	0.3	-8.0	0.1
Alex Presley	79	21	3	1	2	10	8	6	16	2	1	.260	.311	.392	.703	99	-0.1	-1.1	0.2
Robbie Grossman	108	26	5	0	2	14	10	14	28	3	2	.237	.327	.350	.677	95	-0.8	-1.0	0.2
Jason Castro	365	84	18	1	11	42	43	35	109	1	1	.230	.301	.376	.677	92	-4.0	6.1	1.7
Domingo Santana	53	12	2	0	2	6	6	5	18	1	0	.221	.295	.373	.668	90	-0.6	-0.8	0.1
L.J. Hoes	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.246	.316	.346	.662	90	0.0	0.0	0.0
Hank Conger	189	43	9	0	5	21	21	17	46	1	1	.227	.295	.364	.659	86	-3.4	3.1	0.7
Matt Dominguez	303	70	13	0	10	33	36	18	58	1	1	.230	.278	.378	.656	84	-6.6	-0.2	0.4
Jake Marisnick	504	118	22	3	12	53	53	25	116	19	9	.234	.280	.360	.641	79	-11.9	2.6	0.9
Jonathan Villar	50	11	2	0	1	6	5	5	14	3	1	.222	.289	.338	.627	78	-1.2	-0.3	0.0
Marwin Gonzalez	108	26	5	0	2	11	10	6	20	2	1	.240	.284	.345	.629	77	-3.1	0.5	0.1
Ronnie Torreyes	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.247	.289	.333	.622	75	0.0	0.0	0.0
Max Stassi	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.216	.263	.346	.609	70	0.0	0.0	0.0

Pitchers:

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP	WAR	RA9-WAR
Josh Fields	2	2	3.10	0	45	2	45.0	38	16	5	49	14	1.17	9.90	2.83	3.49	0.4	0.5
Chad Qualls	3	3	3.67	0	55	6	55.0	55	22	5	43	13	1.24	7.01	2.07	3.50	0.3	0.2
Dallas Keuchel	12	10	3.80	30	30	0	192.0	194	81	14	141	57	1.31	6.61	2.66	3.62	2.7	2.2
Luke Gregerson	3	3	3.65	0	65	24	65.0	63	26	7	55	17	1.22	7.64	2.33	3.68	0.3	0.2
Tony Sipp	3	2	3.09	0	55	1	55.0	46	19	7	61	19	1.19	10.02	3.16	3.69	0.3	0.7
Will Harris	2	2	3.73	0	35	0	35.0	32	14	4	33	12	1.27	8.58	3.11	3.87	0.1	0.1
Collin McHugh	12	11	4.03	31	31	0	192.0	184	86	23	169	58	1.26	7.93	2.71	3.96	2.1	1.8
Pat Neshek	3	3	3.45	0	65	4	65.0	61	25	9	60	16	1.18	8.27	2.16	3.97	0.2	0.5
Jake Buchanan	2	2	4.14	0	40	0	40.0	44	18	4	23	8	1.31	5.26	1.82	4.01	0.0	-0.1
Samuel Deduno	3	4	4.40	7	32	0	63.0	64	31	5	50	27	1.43	7.03	3.80	4.10	0.0	-0.3
Kevin Chapman	1	2	4.22	0	30	0	30.0	27	14	3	29	16	1.44	8.56	4.75	4.27	-0.1	-0.1
Vincent Velasquez	0	0	4.53	0	0	0	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	1.41	8.01	4.03	4.45	0.0	0.0
Alex White	1	1	4.68	2	17	0	25.0	25	13	3	18	10	1.44	6.59	3.63	4.46	-0.1	-0.2
Scott Feldman	9	12	4.85	29	29	0	173.0	189	93	21	109	50	1.39	5.66	2.62	4.49	0.8	0.0
Brett Oberholtzer	9	11	4.61	29	29	0	163.0	177	84	25	109	41	1.34	6.02	2.29	4.64	0.6	0.5
Brad Peacock	7	8	4.72	20	30	0	125.0	124	66	18	106	55	1.43	7.63	3.98	4.75	0.0	-0.2
Luis Cruz	0	0	4.85	0	0	0	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	1.46	6.48	3.74	4.80	0.0	0.0
Asher Wojciechowski	0	0	5.05	0	0	0	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	1.45	5.99	3.28	4.89	0.0	0.0
Dan Straily	4	4	4.65	12	12	0	67.0	67	35	11	55	27	1.41	7.36	3.65	4.90	0.2	0.2
Michael Feliz	0	0	5.44	0	0	0	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	1.55	5.67	4.02	5.25	0.0	0.0

After the overhaul this offseason, this is the first time in several years that the Astros faithful can say with utmost sincerity that they are indeed looking forward to the start of the season. The acquisitions of Evan Gattis, Hank Conger, and Luis Valbuena are sure to bolster the lineup in certain areas of dire need, and the signings of Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus, and Joe Thatcher have changed the landscape of the Astros roster for the greater good of the health of those who root for the good guys. Although some cringed, myself included, parting ways with the upside of Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Nick Tropeano, as well as the on-base ability at the top of the order in Dexter Fowler, this offseason, the additions of Evan Gattis, and Luis Valbuena make the opening day roster considerably more attractive than that of years past and moves the Astros closer to relevancy and contention. Dan Straily is also worth noting as an important piece in the Fowler deal with the Cubs. Straily has posted solid campaigns with the A's in the recent past, and given his minor league track record ability of missing bats and compiling a high K rate, it will be interesting to see what the wizard Brent Strom can do with the righty. I try to reel in my homer-ism from time to time, but I feel Strom is one of the best in the business, all Houston Bias aside and Straily could be in line to be this years Collin McHugh. I consider the Steamer projections too harsh, and the Fans projections too optimistic. If all goes swimmingly for the men in Navy and orange, I would expect 80 wins. The bullpen is greatly improved with the additions of Gregerson and Neshek, and the incumbents including Chad Qualls, Josh Fields, and Tony Sipp round out what should be the most reliable 'pen the right field bleachers have seen in a very long time. The Will Harris waiver claim should receive praise as well as Harris has a small, but successful track record and is projected to post respectable numbers wearing Astros navy and orange. The offense receives a shot in the arm with the attractive addition of El Oso Blanco, as he should do some remodeling of the arches in left. The addition of Luis Valbuena adds an on base tool, with a walk rate consistently over 11%, at third base that was so desperately needed, and he provides serviceable to above average, valuable defense. Colby Rasmus provides a veteran presence with considerable pop in the outfield. Although his offensive value has been closely linked to his high BABIP over the course of his career, his power tool has remained constant with an ISO of over.220 the last two years. The return of Jed Lowrie provides a welcome improvement at short. Although Jonathon Villar remains a tool shed, the return of the JEDi is needed in order for the Astros to take the next step as Villar can season in AAA Fresno(that's weird to type), and re-establish value. Even after a down offensive campaign, Jed posted positive metrics thanks to his above average play with the glove. At his best he flirts with 4 wins above replacement at the shortstop position, a rare commodity, and the friendly confines of Minute Maid should do better for his offensive numbers than O.Co did. There are also a couple guys returning you may have heard of in Chris Carter, Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Jake Marisnick, and Jon Singleton. Although his second half tear cannot be expected again this season, Chris Carter should remain a valuable commodity with one of the highest right handed power tools in the game. Jason Castro should improve on his poor 2014, and provide the Astros with a top 10 ML catcher in my opinion. Jose Altuve may not hit an outrageous .341, but he will still do Jose Altuve things. 'Tuve gonna 'Tuve. That George Springer guy should do alright I suppose. He's okay from what the kids say. Jake Marisnick will provide elite defense if AJ Hinch can manage to slot him in the order, and Jon Singleton will be an interesting one to watch this year as the first baseman of the future will have to adjust to major league pitching during his sophomore campaign. Flirting with .500 is a huge step from 111 losses only two campaigns removed, but very doable given the rosters additions. Below I'll post my rough projections on some very basic numbers...

Houston Bias Projections:

Hitters:

Name	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chris Carter	600	34	3	.231	.322	.480
George Springer	600	38	19	.247	.340	.470
Jose Altuve	600	9	43	.304	.348	.423
Evan Gattis	600	33	0	.251	.307	.497
Jed Lowrie	600	11	2	.255	.330	.415
Colby Rasmus	600	26	6	.232	.296	.422
Luis Valbuena	600	19	1	.245	.336	.417
Jon Singleton	600	27	4	.223	.315	.401
Alex Presley	600	12	17	.240	.283	.365
Robbie Grossman	600	10	16	.241	.337	.358
Jason Castro	450	15	2	.248	.321	.400
Domingo Santana	600	18	9	.208	.275	.363
L.J. Hoes	600	6	14	.255	.319	.354
Hank Conger	450	9	2	.235	.285	.364
Matt Dominguez	600	18	1	.230	.278	.378
Jake Marisnick	600	15	26	.241	.287	.360
Jonathan Villar	600	14	40	.222	.289	.338
Marwin Gonzalez	600	9	8	.250	.280	.345

Pitchers:

Name	W	L	ERA	IP
Josh Fields	4	3	3.65	65.0
Chad Qualls	3	3	3.42	65.0
Dallas Keuchel	15	8	3.50	200.0
Luke Gregerson	3	3	2.97	65.0
Tony Sipp	4	3	3.65	65.0
Will Harris	3	3	3.63	65.0
Collin McHugh	14	10	3.76	200.0
Pat Neshek	3	3	3.27	65.0
Jake Buchanan	3	3	4.14	65.0
Samuel Deduno	3	4	4.40	65.0
Kevin Chapman	3	3	4.47	65.0
Alex White	3	4	4.68	65.0
Scott Feldman	13	12	4.10	200.0
Brett Oberholtzer	12	13	3.89	200.0
Brad Peacock	7	14	4.52	200.0
Asher Wojciechowski	6	10	4.86	200.0
Dan Straily	9	13	4.25	200.0

With Spring training just around the corner the national pastime is on the horizon. Tell us what you think of the Astros prospects going into the 2015 campaign.