Thursday, July 23, 2015

How the Astros Can Adhere to an Innings Limit While Keeping Young Arms in The Rotation for the Post-season Push

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I'm back for my quarterly attempt at Houston sports blogging. With the crucial addition of Scott Kazmir to the rotation, the Astros find themselves in the favorable position of having the flexibility limiting innings moving forward for Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez. How might they perform such a feat, and have both arms participate in October baseball? Lets journey down the rabbit hole.

With the Astros siting at 54-43, only one game behind the division leading Angels, and leading the American League Wild Card race, The good guys are in the thick of it going down the stretch. Oh! glorious day! Contributions from rookie hurlers McCullers and Velasquez have been vital in where the Astros currently sit in the standings, and as such would benefit from avoiding a Stephen Strasburg-esque scenario in which an innings limit brings their respective seasons to a premature close when their ball-club needs them.

With 65 games remaining, the members of the Astros five-man rotation each have 13 respective starts remaining. Although VV was sent to the bullpen, an alternate scenario in which both Velasquez and McCullers start, and limit their innings goes as follows.

Week 1:
1. Keuchel
2. Kazmir
3. McHugh
4. Feldman
5. McCullers

Week 2:
1. Keuchel
2. Kazmir
3. McHugh
4. Feldman
5. Velasquez

Wash, rinse repeat.

To this point in the season, between the minors and the big league level, McCullers has thrown a grand total of 98 innings, and Velasquez sits at 64 innings. McCullers previous career high sits at 104.2 innings, and Velasquez owns a career high of 124.2 innings. Assuming the Astros are implementing an innings limit of around 150 innings or less, with Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez sharing a spot in the rotation, the duo makes roughly six starts a piece, and assuming that they go an average of six frames in those starts, they tack on a guesstimated 36 innings to their total. Lance McCullers ends the year with 134 innings, and Velasquez totals 100 innings upon the close of the regular season. This scenario allows both hurlers to adhere to an innings limit, while allowing the duo to contribute in October, given that the Astros play postseason baseball. Go 'Stros!

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