Friday, July 19, 2013

The Case For Keeping Bud Norris In An Astros Uniform






     Since the start of the year rumors of a possible Bud Norris deal have been swirling. Outside of Matt Garza, Bud would be near the top of the list of upper echelon pitchers available. Considering he has a couple years left of team control, and he's 28 looking to be entering his prime, Bud would be a rather valuable asset to any ballclub. The case for trading Bud is to continue the fire sale and stock the pond that is the minor league level for future contention. Many feel that the Astros should capitalize on the weak starting pitching pool available this deadline, as well as take advantage of Bud's current value, in fear that he may become the next Lucas Harrell.

The Case For Bud:  
   
     Personally, I'll take a very hard pass on trading Norris, in fact I would like to see an Altuve-esque, team friendly extension done to lock him up for the next 4-5 years. The farm is near saturation, and at this point of the rebuild it's time to build through the draft. Continuing to move guys like bud, on the right side of 30, established quality major league contributors, is a very slippery slope and only furthers the date of contention. Bud is a solid major league starting pitcher that's getting an idea of how to do it, and do it well at the major league level. I doubt we've even seen his ceiling, but for sure guys lets trade him.. TRADE EVERYBODY!!!!! All the speculation and push to deal Bud really pumps my gas, cooks my grits, chaps my ass, etc. There's reason to believe Bud's year is no anomaly either, he's thus far posted a 3.63 ERA in 114 innings of work. The ERA is no fluke, considering hes posted a 114 ERA+, as well as a 3.55 FIP(Fielding Independant Pitching). Bud is on pace to throw over 200 innings for the first time in his career, a golden standard for quality rotation arms. He has posted a career low SO/9 of 6.4, but he most importantly has to his name a career low BB/9 of 2.8. The reduced K rate may be a factor in his ability to go deeper into ball games this year, so it's not per say a bad thing. Norris is having this kind of a year despite a career high H/9 of 9.9. He has been much more efficient all the while surrendering an abnormally high BABIP of .326. Therefore he's succeeding in spite of a few factors, and instead of regression, we may see improvement during the course of the year. Norris has posted BB%'s of 11.3% in 2011 to 9.0% in 2012 to 7.4% this year in 2013, so it's reasonable to assume that there is a pattern there of substance. Bud Norris is becoming a better, more efficient pitcher, and may continue to do so.

     Many in favor of a trade make the argument that there are many arms in the lower levels that need their shot and will fill Buds spot. Guys such a Folty, Wojo, Buchanan, Cosart, and Peacock are not far away at all, but there is nothing more volatile than a pitching prospect. Assuming anyone of those guys can fill Bud's spot and be half the starter that he can be is a massive assumption. We have a wealth of pitching depth in the minor league levels, why not compound the talent with Bud? Norris could fill the role of the veteran that shows the younger guys the rope and has a positive influence on the way they go about their work and adjust to major league ball. Bud is not Carlos Lee, Erik Bedard, Carlos Pena, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Lyon, or Jose Veras. He is not a stop-gap, he is not on the wrong side of 30. He can be apart of future plans, Bud Norris can contribute to the next winning Astros team. So no, hell no, I would rather not trade him.

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